基于OpenLISEM模型的泥石流启动冲出预测  

Modeling of debris flow incipient and run-out zone based on OpenLISEM

作　　者：陈明[1] 唐川[1] 王飞龙 王晓迪 CHEN Ming;TANG Chuan;WANG Fei-long;WANG Xiao-di(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;China Construction Southwest Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610052,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059 [2]中国建筑西南勘察设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610052

出　　处：《泥沙研究》2020年第4期59-65,共7页Journal of Sediment Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1501004);国家自然科学基金项目(41672299)。

摘　　要：汶川地震后,滑坡、崩塌及不稳定斜坡等不良地质体在震区广泛存在,在暴雨诱发条件下极易发生泥石流。2010年8月13日震区的都江堰市龙溪河流域遭遇暴雨,导致群发性泥石流。以龙溪河流域为典型研究区,在模型率定的基础上,运用Open LISEM软件对研究区进行泥石流启动和冲出过程数值模拟,获得泥石流的固体物质启动分布和冲出规模,并根据研究区的泥石流堆积扇的实测数据与预测模拟结果进行准确性验证,大部分模拟结果误差在20%左右,表明该模型具有较好的适用性和准确性,对泥石流启动及冲出范围模拟是可行的,有助于在规避风险时对搬迁地点的选择,可为风险评价提供重要的参考。Geological disaster bodies such as landslides,collapses and unstable slopes are widespread in the earthquake zone after the Wenchuan earthquake. On August 13,2010,the Longxi River Basin suffered from heavy rainstorms,which triggered massive debris flows. The Longxi River Basin was selected as the study area.Based on the model calibration,the OpenLISEM software is used to modeling the initiation and run-out processes in the study area,and the solid material incipient distribution and run-out scale of the debris flow were obtained.The accuracy was verified,according to the measured data of the debris flow fan in the study area. The errors of most modeling results are about 20%. Results show that the model is feasible to simulate and predict the debris flow initiation and run-out zone,which help authorities to select safe sites for rehabilitation and relocation in the future,and could be used as an important basis for debris-flow risk management.

关 键 词：泥石流 启动 冲出范围 Open LISEM 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]