俄罗斯干预独联体地区冲突的情感因素分析  

Analysis of the Emotional Factors for Russia Intervention in the Conflict within the CIS

作　　者：杨雷[1] 刘雨喆 Yang Lei;Liu Yuzhe

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2020年第4期95-111,157,共18页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘一带一路’与大欧亚伙伴关系倡议的对接路径及其发展趋势研究”(项目编号:17BGJ034)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：苏联解体以来,俄罗斯多次干预独联体地区冲突,但其干预方式和结果却存在一定的差异。传统国际政治观点认为,情境压力对于政治行为的影响居于首要。这一点在俄罗斯干预克里米亚和乌东两州的不同方式上得到体现。政治心理学认为,情感对政治行为有驱动作用,在情境压力的影响下形成政治行为。俄罗斯对独联体地区的政治情感主要有眷念之情和不安全感,在不同的时期和地区以及不同的社会政治背景下,俄罗斯的干预行为所受影响不同。具体而言,在情境压力不变的情况下,当俄罗斯对独联体地区的眷念和不安全感都较强时,它倾向于武力干预;当眷念只有中等强度,而不安全感较强时,也倾向武力干预,但会受到情境压力的很强制约;当眷念只有中等强度,且不安全感较弱时,则倾向调和斡旋;当眷念较弱而不安全感较强时,倾向调和斡旋;而当眷念和不安全感都较弱时,进行干预的动机不足,则选择搁置。在俄罗斯对纳卡冲突、格鲁吉亚冲突的干预案例中,情感影响俄罗斯干预行为的生成机制得到验证。Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union,Russia has repeatedly intervened in conflicts in the CIS region,but there are certain differences in terms of its intervention measures and results.According to the traditional views of international politics,the situational pressure is the first and foremost factor to influence political behavior.This is reflected in the different ways Russia intervenes in the Crimea and Udon states.In terms of political psychology,emotions have a driving effect on political behavior and shape political behavior under the influence of situational pressure.Russia mainly has senses of attachment and insecurity towards the CIS.Thus its intervention behavior is differentiated in terms of different periods,regions,as well as socio-political backgrounds.Specifically,when the situational pressure remains constant,when Russia has strong senses of attachment and insecurity towards the CIS region,it restores to military intervention;when the sense of attachment is only moderately strong,and the sense of insecurity is strong,Russia also tends to use military forces but its behavior is restrained by the situational pressure.When the sense of attachment is only moderately strong,and the sense of insecurity is weak,it tends to mediate;when the sense of attachment is weak and the sense of insecurity is strong,it is also inclined to mediate;And when both senses are weak,and the motivation to intervene is insufficient,it chooses to shelve it.In the case of Russian intervention in the conflicts in Naka and Georgia,the mechanism of emotional influence on Russian intervention has been verified.

关 键 词：俄罗斯外交 独联体冲突 政治情感 政治干预 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]