1987—2016年全球陆地气候气象及水文类灾害直接经济损失时空特征及贡献率分析  

Spatial-temporal Patterns and Influencing Factor Contributions of Direct Economic Loss from Climatological-Meteorological-Hydrological Hazards in the World in 1987-2016

作　　者：马恒 刘甜 牟翠翠[5] 史培军[1,2,3,6] Ma Heng;Liu Tian;Mu Cuicui;Shi Peijun(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management&Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [5]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [6]青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《地理科学》2020年第7期1171-1180,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602404);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41621061)资助。

摘　　要：基于EM-DAT数据库1987—2016年全球陆地气候气象及水文类(气候相关类)灾害灾情数据及居民消费者价格指数(CPI)、GDP等社会资料数据,对直接经济损失、损失占比(直接经济损失/GDP)等在不同尺度上计算分析,并量化了频次、GDP、频次与GDP联合影响对损失占比变化的贡献率。结果表明:①全球直接经济损失随时间变化呈显著上升趋势,损失占比先上升后下降,世界防灾减灾能力不断加强,但应对巨灾能力仍然较弱;②收入水平越高区域遭受直接经济损失越严重,但中低和中高收入区域经济损失占比明显高于低收入和高收入区域;③直接经济损失严重地区有欧洲、东亚、南亚、东南亚及北美洲中南部地区,而损失占比较高地区主要有东亚、东南亚和加勒比海地区;④初期灾次对气候气象及水文类灾害损失占比变化起主导作用但影响力逐渐减弱,GDP和频次与GDP联合影响对损失占比变化作用逐渐增强,不同收入区域存在一定差异。With the development of society and the growth of population,the impact of global climate change on human society is increasing rapidly and some countries and regions may suffer more climate-related hazards,which include climatological hazards(drought,glacial lake outburst and wildfire),meteorological hazards(extreme temperature,fog and storm)and hydrological hazards(flood,landslide and wave action).These hazards happened more frequently as time went by,and the direct economic losses had also increased,posing many challenges to the development of security and human.Direct economic loss is the most direct and concentrated manifestation of hazards in terms of impact,whose absolute and relative values are the key indicators for characterizing the hazards and disasters.Systematic study of the spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factor contributions of direct economic loss from climatological-meteorological-hydrological hazards in the world can help us master the development rules of hazards,the ability to respond disasters in different income regions and the contributions of different factors to disaster loss to provide a certain reference for disaster prevention and mitigation,and they’re also important for planning and sustainable development in different countries and regions.Based on the global climatological-meteorological-hydrological hazards and disaster data in EM-DAT from 1987 to 2016 and social data such as Consumer Price Index(CPI)and Gross Domestic Product(GDP),the direct economic loss and loss ratio(direct economic loss/GDP)of the hazards were calculated and analyzed on different spatial-temporal scales respectively,the contribution rate of frequency of hazards and disasters,GDP and their coupling effects to disaster loss ratio were analyzed as well.The results showed that:1)The total direct economic loss of the disasters showed a significant upward trend over time,while the loss ratio of the disasters went up and then went down.The ability of the whole world to prevent and mitigate disasters had

关 键 词：气候气象及水文类灾害 直接经济损失 损失占比 区域灾害系统论 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]