基于改进DGM(1,1)模型的隧道围岩收敛变形预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of Convergence Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Based on Improved DGM(1,1)Model

作　　者：盛凤江 SHENG Feng-jiang(Hunan International Engineering Consulting Centre Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省国际工程咨询中心有限公司,长沙410000

出　　处：《价值工程》2020年第27期199-200,共2页Value Engineering

摘　　要：为提高隧道围岩收敛变形预测模型的精度,针对离散灰色DGM(1,1)预测模型原始监测数据受噪声因素影响的特点,采用滑动平均法对原始监测数据进行预先降噪处理,降低原始数据造成的扰动误差影响,再用离散灰色DGM(1,1)预测模型对降噪后的数据进行预测,从而得到改进DGM(1,1)模型。以某隧道围岩变形监测数据为实例,应用改进DGM(1,1)模型,建立隧道围岩变形预测模型,同时对比分析常规GM(1,1)模型、DGM(1,1)模型和改进DGM(1,1)模型3种模型预测精度。结果表明:经过滑动平均法改进后的DGM(1,1)模型的预测精度较常规GM(1,1)模型和DGM(1,1)模型的预测精度有较大提高,可为隧道围岩变形超前预报提供新的指导思路。In order to improve the accuracy of convergence deformation prediction model for tunnel surrounding rock,in view of the characteristics that the original monitoring data of the discrete grey DGM(1,1)prediction model are affected by noise factors,the sliding average method is used to pre-process the original monitoring data to reduce the disturbance error caused by the original data,and then the discrete grey DGM(1,1)prediction model is used to predict the data after noise reduction.The improved DGM(1,1)model is obtained.Taking the monitoring data of surrounding rock deformation of a tunnel as an example,an improved DGM(1,1)model is applied to establish the prediction model of surrounding rock deformation of a tunnel.At the same time,the prediction accuracy of conventional GM(1,1)model,DGM(1,1)model and improved DGM(1,1)model are compared and analyzed.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the improved DGM(1,1)model is higher than that of the conventional GM(1,1)model and DGM(1,1)model,which can provide a new guidance for the advance prediction of tunnel surrounding rock deformation.

关 键 词：滑动平均法 隧道 围岩收敛 DGM(1 1)模型 变形预测 

分 类 号：U452.12[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]