广东省COVID-19疫情的空间流行病学分析  

Spatial epidemiological analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 in Guangdong Province

作　　者：李清清 高铭 郑沾福 胡维 Li Qingqing;Gao Ming;Zheng Zhanfu;Hu Wei(Teaching and Research Section of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics,School of Public Healthy Guangdong Medical University)

机构地区：[1]广东医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,东莞523808

出　　处：《重庆医科大学学报》2020年第7期904-910,共7页Journal of Chongqing Medical University

摘　　要：目的:基于地理信息系统,探索广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)的空间分布特征及社会因素对疫情流行程度的影响。方法:收集广东省报告病例信息,探索其发病重心轨迹的迁移情况、空间相关性;通过地理加权回归模型探索人口密度、人均国内生产总值、同期内人口迁入指数和市内出行强度这4个社会因素对COVID-19流行程度的影响。结果:至截止日,广东省累计报告确诊病例1331例,新增病例流的重心轨迹始终在珠三角地区迁移。自2月2日,COVID-19存在显著的空间聚集性。社会因素对COVID-19流行具有正相关关系。结论:广东省COVID-19疫情虽然存在空间聚集性,但是高发聚集区较少且局限在珠三角地区。此外,人均国内生产总值、人口流入指数及市内出行情况这3个社会因素对珠三角地区疫情的影响较大。Objective:To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Guangdong Province,and to investigate the effect of social factors on the epidemic degree based on geographic information system.Methods:Reported case information of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province from January 19 to February 18,2020 was collected.The migration of epidemic gravity center and the spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 were explored.Data on four social factors were collected:population density,GDP per capita,population migration index and city travel intensity during the same period.Then,the influence of social factors on the prevalence of COVID-19 was explored by geographically weighted regression model.Results:Up to February 18,a total of 1,331 confirmed cases were reported in Guangdong Province and the epidemic gravity center of COVID-19 was always migrating in the Pearl River Delta region.Since February 2,the COVID-19 showed obvious spatial aggregation.A positive correlation was observed between the epidemic of COVID-19 relationship and social factors.Conclusion:Although spatial clusters of COVID-19 in Guangdong still exist,high-incidence areas are few and are limited to the Pearl River Delta.In addition,three social factors including GDP per capita,population inflow index and city travel have a greater impact on the prevalence of COVID-19 in Pearl River Delta region.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 重心轨迹 空间自相关 地理加权回归 

分 类 号：R511[医药卫生—内科学]