广州某城中村低压用电负荷的特性与需求预测研究  

Study on characteristics and demand forecast of low-voltage electricity load in an urban village in Guangzhou

作　　者：赖水生 肖军 蓝贤钢 左小德[2] LAI Shuisheng;XIAO Jun;LAN Xiangang;ZUO Xiaode(Panyu Power Supply Bureau,Guangzhou Power Supply Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510000,China;School of Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510000,China;School of Economics,Zhuhai City Vocational and Technical College,Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]广州供电局有限公司番禺供电局,广州510000 [2]暨南大学管理学院,广州510000 [3]珠海城市职业技术学院经济学院,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2020年第5期73-77,共5页Power Demand Side Management

基　　金：广州供电局有限公司职创项目(K-GZZG-2019-077)。

摘　　要：为解决城中村用电供需不平衡的问题,通过对广州某城中村(N村)2016—2017年的历史负荷数据分析,按照日、月、季(年)负荷特性的相关指标分类,确定了N村的负荷的变化规律及其特性。对城中村的负荷影响因素进行了分类研究,并运用"统计产品与服务解决方案"(statistical product and service solutions,SPSS)对因素进行因子分析、主成分分析和线性回归等,得到影响负荷变化的主要影响因子以及负荷预测模型,并用内插外推法验证了模型的通用性,负荷的预测可以为供电部门提供决策依据。In order to solve the problem of unbalanced electricity supply and demand of urban villages,the historical load data of an urban village in Guangzhou(N village)from 2016 to 2017 are analyzed.According to the relevant indicators of daily,monthly and quarterly(yearly)load characteristics,the change law and characteristics of the load of N village are determined.The load influencing factors of the urban village are classified,and SPSS is used to analyze the factors,conduct principal component analysis and complete linear regression,and the main influencing factors and load forecasting models that affect the load changes are obtained.The interpolation extrapolation method is used to verify the versatility of the model.The prediction of the load can provide the decision-making basis for the power supply department.

关 键 词：城中村 负荷特性分析 因子分析 负荷预测 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]