宏观经济发展对于珠宝拍卖市场的影响研究——以苏富比拍卖行为例  

Research on the Impact of Macroeconomic Development on the Jewelry Auction Market:Taking Sotheby's Auction Behavior as an Example

作　　者：张彦伟 周琦深[1] 包德清[1] ZHANG Yanwei;ZHOU Qishen;BAO Deqing(Gemmological Institute,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)珠宝学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《中国宝玉石》2020年第4期33-40,48,共9页China Gems & Jades

摘　　要：宏观经济发展是珠宝拍卖市场发展的前提,研究两者间的关系可以指导珠宝拍卖市场的发展。通过统计近十年苏富比不同拍卖地的珠宝拍卖成交额以及苏富比2002年到2019年的拍卖总额与珠宝拍卖总额,结合世界经济形势对苏富比的珠宝拍卖进行了概述。为了研究宏观经济发展与苏富比珠宝拍卖的关系,选取世界国民总收入、世界人均GDP、世界CPI通货膨胀率、世界证券市场总市值作为宏观经济指标,首先与苏富比珠宝拍卖成交额做描述性统计分析,并利用SPSS软件进行双变量相关性分析,得出苏富比珠宝拍卖成交总额与世界国民总收入、世界人均GDP以及世界证券市场总市值相关性显著,相关系数分别为0.886、0.872、0.852,与世界CPI通货膨胀率的相关性不显著。最后进行回归分析研究三个宏观经济指标对于苏富比珠宝拍卖成交额的影响,研究表明世界国民总收入对于苏富比珠宝拍卖额的影响最大,同时建立了根据宏观经济指标预测苏富比珠宝拍卖成交额的回归模型。Macroeconomic development is a prerequisite for the development of the jewelry auction market,and studying the relationship between the two can guide the development of the jewelry auction market.Through the statistics of Sotheby’s jewelry auction turnover in different auction locations in the past decade,Sotheby’s total auctions and jewelry auctions from 2002 to 2019,the article gives an overview of Sotheby’s jewelry auctions based on the world economic situation.In order to study the relationship between macroeconomic development and Sotheby’s jewelry auction,the article selects the world gross national income,world per capita GDP,world CPI inflation rate,and the total market value of the world’s securities market as macroeconomic indicators.Firstly,the article makes a descriptive statistical analysis of macroeconomic indicators and Sotheby’s jewelry auction turnover,then,and uses SPSS software to perform a bivariate correlation analysis.The conclusion is that Sotheby’s jewelry auction turnover is significantly correlated with world gross national income,world per capita GDP,and total market value of the world’s securities market,with correlation coefficients of 0.886,0.872 and 0.852,respectively,and no significant correlation with the world CPI inflation rate.Finally,this article conducts a regression analysis to study the impact of three macroeconomic indicators on Sotheby’s jewelry auction turnover.The study shows that the world’s gross national income has the greatest impact on Sotheby’s jewelry auction turnover.At the same time,a regression model for forecasting Sotheby’s jewelry auction turnover based on macroeconomic indicators has been established.

关 键 词：宏观经济 苏富比珠宝拍卖 相关性分析 回归分析 

分 类 号：TS93[轻工技术与工程]