中国木质家具国内外市场需求趋势研究——基于差分整合自回归移动平均模型的应用  

Research on the Demands of Domestic and International Market of Chinese Wooden Furniture Industry——Base on Application of ARIMA Model

作　　者：林萌 曹玉昆[2] Lin Meng;Cao Yukun(College of Economics and Business Management,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,哈尔滨150080 [2]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第6期33-42,共10页Forestry Economics

基　　金：黑龙江省社会科学基金“打造‘两座金山银山’推进生态文明建设研究”(编号:17GLH02);黑龙江省哲学社会研究规划项目“基于产业集群协同创新的黑龙江省家具产业创新升级研究”(编号:19GLB086)。

摘　　要：中国作为全世界最大的木质家具制造国,多年以来,木质家具业却处于全球家具制造产业链的底端。虽然中国木质家具产业规模在不断扩大,但整个行业的收入与利润增长率却呈下降的趋势,整个产业正面临转型。在转型期木质家具业国内外市场需求如何变化,是行业监管部门、从业者乃至投资者都需要了解的问题。文章通过收集中国木质家具业2001~2017年年度销售额、出口额及进口额等时间序列数据,在本领域首次利用差分整合自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型建立预测模型,根据相关模型预测未来国内外市场需求的变化趋势,并进行了综合分析。研究预测,未来几年木质家具国内外市场需求都将保持增长,到2023年中国木质家具产业年度总销售额、出口额与进口额将分别达到1299.23亿美元、429.86亿美元与25.89亿美元。其中总销售额增速较为稳定,出口额增长速度逐年加快,进口额增速有所降低。木质家具国际市场未来依旧保持出口导向,且随着产业规模的进一步扩大与国家"一带一路"倡议的实施,国际市场份额将进一步增大。未来中国木质家具国内市场份额将呈现下降的趋势,预计到2023年国内市场销售额将达到928.53亿美元,国内市场份额将下降到71.47%。这预示着国内市场需求增速将放缓,受人口因素、上下游产业的影响效果正在显现。文章研究结论对于木质家具企业在不确定的市场环境中把握市场导向具有重要意义。基于研究结论,从市场开发、产业转型、政策调控三个方面提出相关建议。China has been the largest furniture producer in the world for many years,but its wooden furniture industry has always been at the bottom of the global value chain.Though the scale of Chinese wooden furniture industry has been expanding,the income and profit growth rate has declined.The industry is facing to the transformation.China is the largest furniture exporter in the world,its export also dominate the international trade in furniture.In the period of transition,"how the market will develop"is the key issue that industry regulators,participants and even investors want to understand.According to collected time series data for annual sales as well as the value of exports and imports of the wooden furniture industry,this paper fi rstly used the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to establish forecast models in the field of wooden furniture industry.Based on the models,the future trends of domestic and foreign market demand were forecasted,and a comprehensive analysis was conducted.The study found that:domestic and international market demand will continue to grow over the next few years,China’s wooden furniture sales,export value and import value are expected to grow steadily,with estimated annual sales of$129.923 billion,$42.986 billion and$2.589 billion by 2023.The growth rate of overall sales is relatively stable,and the growth rate of export value will increase,meantime,the growth rate of import value will decrease.The international market of wooden furniture will remain export-oriented in the future,and with the further expansion of the industrial scale and the implementation of the national"Belt and Road"initiative,the international market share will further increase.In the future,China’s domestic market share of wooden furniture will show a downward trend.By 2023,the domestic market sales will be$92.853 billion and domestic market share will decline to 71.47%.This shows that the growth rate of domestic market demand will slow down,and the infl uence of population factors and upstrea

关 键 词：木质家具产业 ARIMA模型 时间序列 家具市场 

分 类 号：F407.88文献标识码:A[经济管理—产业经济]