基于闪电数据的雷电风险优化研究模型与应用  

Research and Application Model of Disaster Risk Optimization based on Lightning data

作　　者：刘凤姣 薛明 薛德锋 肖昀[3] 贺秋艳 LIU Fengjiao;XUE Ming;XUE Defeng;XIAO Yun;HE Qiuyan(Hunan Lightning Protection Center,Changsha 410007,China;Jingzhou Meteorological Bureau,Huaihua 418000,China;Huaihua Meteorological Bureau,Huaihua 418400,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象灾害防御技术中心气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410007 [2]靖州县气象局,湖南靖州418400 [3]怀化市气象局,湖南怀化418000

出　　处：《灾害学》2020年第4期48-53,84,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：湖南省气象局科研课题(XQKJ18B030,XQKJ19A002);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2006CB200303)。

摘　　要：通过选择地闪日数、密度、强度和陡度作为雷电风险的基础因子,采用天气学与数理统计原理,给出了雷电数据因子的选择思路、因子优化、变量组合及风险等级划分方法,开展雷电数据因子和相关标准的应用等对比分析。研究结果表明:经数据处理和优化的雷电因子,对雷电风险具有明显指示意义,得出雷电因子的组合因子优于单因子,四个因子的组合是最优最稳定。对依据《GB50057建筑物防雷设计规范》规范给出的25 kA雷电流参数选取的强雷电因子对雷电高风险等级的指示作用进行验证,绘制了怀化雷电变量风险等级分布和雷灾叠加图,得出雷灾起数集中区域多为雷电变量风险等级较高区域,为雷电风险评估、预警、区划因子的选择提供了更多参考思路。Based on the application of lightning data, we conducte multifaceted researches to provide more reference ideas for selection of lightning risk assessment, early warning and division factor. Based on principles of weather science and mathematical statistics, this paper presents selection of lightning data factors, factor optimization,variable combination and risk classification method and makes a comparative analysis of lightning data factors and relative standards. The results show that the data processing and optimization of lightning factor has a significant indication of the lightning risk and combination factor of lightning factor is better than single factor and combination of four factors is the best and most stable. According to method in this paper, it is verified that the strong thunder factor which 25 kA lightning current parameters choose according to GB50057 standard has better indication function to high risk level of lightning and distribution of lightning variable risk level and superposition diagram of lightning disaster of Huaihua are drawn to conclude that most areas where number of thunder disaster is concentrated are the areas which have higher risk level of lightning variables.

关 键 词：闪电数据 变量组合 因子优化 雷电灾害 风险等级 等级划分 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]