上海中心城区复合洪涝淹没模拟及未来重现预估  

Compound Flooding Simulation and Prediction of Future Recurrence in Shanghai Downtown Area

作　　者：贺芳芳[1] 胡恒智[2] 董广涛[1] 许瀚卿 HE Fangfang;HU Hengzhi;DONG Guangtao;XU Hanqing(Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]上海师范大学,上海200234 [3]华东师范大学,上海200062

出　　处：《灾害学》2020年第4期93-98,134,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项项目(2018YFC1506006);上海市发改委节能减排项目(SHXM-00-20180628-5471);上海市气象局重大科研项目(ZD201905)。

摘　　要：台风影响期间造成的极端大风、降水和台风风暴潮极易引发洪涝灾害,叠加天文大潮、上游来水和未来海平面上升等因素将会对沿海特大城市的公共安全造成严重威胁。采用水动力模型ICM InfoWorks模拟了"海葵"台风影响期间"台风、暴雨、天文大潮"三碰头和"菲特"台风影响期间"台风、暴雨、上游来水及天文大潮"四碰头造成的上海市中心城区复合洪涝灾害淹没情况。结果表明历史"海葵"、"菲特"台风影响期间,上海中心城区受淹地区主要出现在黄浦江、苏州河附近地势低洼的上海老城区。接着基于PGW方法驱动WRF模式输出2050年"海葵"和"菲特"台风重现期间的降水数据,同法模拟上海地区复合洪涝灾害情况,结果显示未来气候变暖背景下,2050年"海葵"和"菲特"台风重现时降水均呈增加趋势,中心城区受淹面积和淹没深度均明显强于历史同期。The extreme strong winds, precipitation and typhoon storm surges caused by typhoon are very likely to cause flood disasters, in combining with astronomical tides, upstream water and future sea level rise will pose a serious threat to the public safety of coastal megacities. This paper uses the hydrodynamic model ICM InfoWorks to simulate the three encounters of "typhoon, torrential rain, and astronomical tide" during the "Haikui" typhoon and the four encounters of "typhoon, torrential rain, upstream water, and astronomical tide" during the "Fitow" typhoon inundation of compound flood disasters in downtown Shanghai. The results show that during the typhoon "Haikui" and "Fitow", the flooded areas in the center of Shanghai mainly appeared in the low-lying old Shanghai area near the Huangpu River and Suzhou Creek. Then these two cases are simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model under future climate conditions obtained from one of CMIP5 GCMs by using a pseudo global warming technique. The results show that rainfall induced by these two tropical cyclones all increase dramatically under future warming climate. The flooding in the downtown area and submerged depth became much more stronger than the simulations from historical run during these two cases.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 水动力模型ICM InfoWorks PGW方法 复合洪涝灾害模拟 上海 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5