基于WSR和霍尔三维结构的气象防灾减灾监控管理研究  

Research on Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Monitoring and Management Based on WSR and Hall 3D Model

作　　者：王慕华[1] WANG Muhua(Public Meteorological Service Center of CMA,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2020年第4期103-107,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFF0300105;2018YFC1507805)。

摘　　要：从系统科学出发,应用软硬相结合的系统工程方法研究气象防灾减灾监控管理领域。鉴于气象防灾减灾系统兼有自然属性、社会属性和人文属性的特点,构建宏观层面基于WSR方法、微观层面基于霍尔三维结构模型的气象防灾减灾监控管理研究框架。研究气象防灾减灾监控管理领域的物理-事理-人理内涵,分析由理解领导意图、制定目标、调研分析和实现方案4个步骤组成的工作流程。研究气象防灾减灾监控管理三维结构模型,时间维包括灾前、灾中和灾后;逻辑维分析灾害发生不同阶段,决策层关注的问题,实施监控管理的评价指标及方法,以及科学有效的实施方案等;知识维涵盖气象防灾减灾的法制、标准、规范,以及为实现监控管理所需的大数据、人工智能和计算机技术的支持等。通过实际案例证明该研究为气象防灾减灾监控管理领域提供一个标准、完整的系统工程方法论体系。From the perspective of system science, we study the field of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring and management by using the system engineering approach of combination of software and hardware. In view of the characteristics of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation system, which has natural, social and human attributes, it constructed the research framework of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring and management based on WSR method at macro level and Hall 3 D model at micro level. It argued the Wuli-Shili-Renli system approach in the field of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring and management, and analyzed the workflow composed of four steps,understanding the intention of leaders, making goals, investigation and analysis, and realizing plans. It studied the three-dimensional structure of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring management, which were composed of temporal dimension,logic dimension and knowledge dimension. The teporal dimension included pre-disaster, disaster and post-disaster. It analyzed the problems of different disaster stages, the concerns of the decision-makers, the evaluation indicators and methods for the implementation of monitoring management, as well as the scientific and effective implementation plan in the logic dimension.The knowledge dimension covered the legal system, standards and specifications for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as big data, artificial intelligence and computer technology etc. It is proved that this study provided a standard and complete system engineering methodology system for the field of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation monitoring and management.

关 键 词：气象防灾减灾 监控管理 系统工程方法论 WSR 霍尔三维结构模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5