基于改进层次分析法的突发水污染事故风险分析  

Risk analysis of sudden water pollution accidents based on improved analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：徐丹 王双银[1] 甘治国[2] 白云岗 XU Dan;WANG Shuangyin;GAN Zhiguo;BAI Yungang(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100044, China;Xinjiang Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Wulumuqi 830049, Xinjiang, China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044 [3]新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2020年第10期159-166,共8页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划之高寒区供水渠道突发险情应急调度与抢险技术(2017YFC0405105);陕西省水利科技项目(2017slkj-1)。

摘　　要：突发水污染事故风险分析可以为事故的防治与救援提供科学依据,保障水资源调度和供水安全。以北疆供水工程为研究对象,采用德尔菲法对其突发水污染事故进行识别,基于专家权重系数和D-S证据理论,改进“五标度”层次分析法并构建事故风险分析模型,采取改进层次分析法和传统层次分析法对工程突发水污染事故风险进行分析。结果表明,人为投毒投药、翻车致污染物入渠、雨洪致污染物入渠和农药化肥渗透入渠四类突发水污染事故发生的相对可能性和后果的相对严重性,改进层次分析法分析为0.0803、0.2800、0.3597、0.2800和0.7069、0.1229、0.0957、0.0745,综合相对风险大小为0.0567、0.0344、0.0344和0.0209;传统层次分析法分析为0.3873、0.1434、0.0940、0.0353和0.1623、0.0477、0.1101、0.0199,综合相对风险大小为0.5496、0.1911、0.2042和0.0552。综合相对风险大小排序一致,但从事故发生可能性和后果严重性相对风险大小可表明,改进层次分析法相较于传统层次分析法得到的结果更具有合理性和说服力,对工程管理提供更有力的参考价值。The risk analysis of sudden water pollution accidents can provide scientific basis for accident prevention and rescue,and ensure water resources dispatching and water supply safety.Based on expert weight coefficient and d-s evidence theory,this paper improves the"five-scale"analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and constructs an accident risk analysis model,and adopts the improved AHP and traditional AHP to analyze the engineering sudden water pollution accident risk.The relative probability and consequence of four types of sudden water pollution accidents,namely,man-made poisoning,turning over,rain flood and pesticide and chemical fertilizer,were obtained.The AHP was improved to 0.0803,0.2800,0.3597,0.2800 and 0.7069,0.1229,0.0957,0.0745,the generou relative risk sizes are 0.0567,0.0344,0.0344 and 0.0209;and the traditional AHP was 0.3873,0.1434,0.0940,0.0353 and 0.1623,0.047,0.0101,0.0199,the general relative risk sizes are 0.5496,0.1911,0.2042 and 0.0552;the overall relative risk order is basically consistent.However,the relative risk size from the probabil of accidemt and the severity of comsequem can show that the improved AHP is more reasonable and persuasive than the traditional AHP,and provides more powerful reference value for engineering management.

关 键 词：突发水污染 风险分析 改进层次分析法 专家权重 D-S证据理论 北疆供水工程 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X522