京津冀地区能源回弹效应测算及演化趋势分析  

Calculation and Evolution Analysis of Energy Rebound Effect in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：刘宇腾 王建伟[1] 高洁 高超 LIU Yuteng;WANG Jianwei;GAO Jie;GAO Chao(School of Economics and Management,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China;School of Information Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学信息工程学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2020年第5期47-52,共6页Environmental Protection Science

摘　　要：利用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数建立回弹效应测量模型,计算了2005~2016年北京、天津、河北及全国的回弹效应。基于回弹效应测算结果进一步运用回归分析的方法,重点分析了上述地区能源回弹效应与其变化率之间的关系,旨在揭示能源回弹效应的时空演化规律,为区域节能减排政策提供理论参考。研究表明:除个别年份外,京津冀及全国的回弹效应数值整体介于−50%~50%之间。京津冀地区回弹效应较高的主要集中在2010年左右。天津、河北及全国均呈现出低回弹高变化率的特征,而北京地区则呈现出截然相反的规律。This paper used the Cobb-Douglas(C-D)production function to establish the rebound effect measurement model,thus calculating the rebound effect of Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and the whole country from 2005 to 2016.Based on the calculation results,the relationship between the energy rebound effect and its variation rate in the above regions was further analyzed by the regression analysis method,in order to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution law of the energy rebound effect and provide a theoretical reference for the regional energy conservation and emission reduction policies.The results showed that the rebound effect of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the whole country was between−50% and 50%,except a few years.The years with a high rebound effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were mainly around 2010.Tianjin,Hebei and the whole country showed the characteristics of a low rebound and a high change rate,while Beijing showed the opposite trend.

关 键 词：能源回弹效应 演化趋势 C-D生产函数 技术进步贡献率 回归分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]