中国近海水面舰艇航行安全风险综合区划方法研究  

Study on the environmental risk regionalization method for surface ship navigation in China's coastal waters

作　　者：陈建 翟宇梅 王学亚 CHEN Jian;ZHAI Yumei;WANG Xueya(Beijing Applied Ueteorlogy Institute,Beijing 100029,China;Unit 31002,Beijing 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]北京应用气象研究所,北京100029 [2]31002部队,北京100080

出　　处：《测绘科学与工程》2020年第4期67-72,共6页Geomatics Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41706021)。

摘　　要：针对水面舰艇航行的环境风险问题,基于中国近海的海面风场、海浪和能见度资料,统计其高值频率、概率极值、平均值、气候变化趋势等指标,利用层次分析法和互反判断矩阵计算大风、大浪、低能见度风险指数,并对三者的综合风险进行区划,为中国近海水面舰艇航行活动规避自然风险提供参考。该方法可根据相关设计标准和环境适应性要求,对高值频率等指标的影响大小进行排序和赋权,能有效区分不同季节和动力机制的环境要素差异、综合考虑不同类型风险影响。区划结果表明:对于水面舰艇航行安全,夏季环境风险偏高的海区主要是热带气旋高发区;冬季风险偏高的海区主要是盛行大风区;秋季以上两种大风浪区同时存在,但以热带气旋影响为主;春季风险偏高的海区则是较低能见度和较大风浪的综合产物。In order to deal with the environmental risk of surface ship navigation,based on the information of sea surface wind,wave and visibility in China’s coastal waters,indicators such as highvalue frequency,extreme value,average value,and climate change trend are analyzed.Then risk indicators,including strong sea surface winds,big sea waves and low visibilities,are calculated by analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and reciprocal judgment matrix,and the integrated risk of those three risk indicators are regionalized,which provides reference for the risk avoidance of surface ship navigation in coastal waters.This method can rank and weight the impact of highvalue frequency and other indicators according to relevant design standards and environmental adaptability requirements,effectively distinguish the environmental factors of different seasons and dynamic mechanisms,and comprehensively consider different types of risk impact.The regionalization results show that the sea areas with high environmental risks in summer are mainly tropical cyclone areas,and in winter are windy areas;the two types of large wind and wave areas coexist in autumn,but the impact of tropical cyclone is dominant;high risk areas in spring feature lower visibility and greater wind and waves.

关 键 词：中国近海 水面舰艇航行 环境风险区划 层次分析法 互反判断矩阵 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学]