FY-4A闪电资料在对流天气数值预报中的影响研究  

Influence of FY-4A Lightning Data on Numerical Forecast of Convective Weather

作　　者：徐国强 黄守友 赵晨阳 XU Guoqiang;HUANG Shouyou;ZHAO Chenyang(National Meteorological Centre/CMA Numerical Weather Prediton Centre,Beijing 100081;Institute of Software,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Aviation Meteorological Center,Beijing 100021)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心/数值预报中心,北京100081 [2]中国科学院软件研究所,北京100190 [3]民航气象中心,北京100021

出　　处：《气象》2020年第9期1165-1177,共13页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506603,2018YFC1506902);国家自然科学基金项目(41590874)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用GRAPES云分析系统,对2019年8月4-5日发生在山西省中北部的太行山区域强对流降水过程进行了分析和数值试验,重点分析引入FY-4A的闪电成像仪(lightning mapping imager event,LMIE)资料对模式计算的雷达反射率、云微物理变量和降水预报的影响。试验结果表明:加入LMIE资料计算得到的雷达回波更接近实测雷达回波,并且对云水、云冰和雪等云微物理要素进行了调整,使发生闪电区域的云微物理要素的含量显著增加,云微物理要素的极值中心一般与闪电活跃区域分布一致。云信息初始化可以有效提高24 h以内的降水预报准确率,减弱数值模式的spin-up现象;加入LMIE资料后,可以进一步提高1~12 h降水预报准确率。A heavy rainfall process which occurred over the Taihang Mountains in central and northern Shanxi Province during 4-5 August 2019 was analyzed by using the GRAPES cloud analysis system,with which numerical experiments were also designed.The effects of the introduction of lightning mapping imager event(LMIE)data of FY-4A on the radar reflectivity,cloud microphysical variables,and rainfall prediction of the model calculation were mainly analyzed.The results indicate that the radar echo calculated by adding the LMIE data was closer to the measured radar echo,and the cloud microphysical elements such as cloud water,cloud ice and snow got adjusted,significantly increasing the content of cloud microphysical elements in the area where lightning occurs.The extreme centers of microphysical elements were generally consistent with the distribution of active areas of lightning.Thus,cloud information initialization could effectively improve the accuracy of precipitation forecast within 24 hours and reduce the spin-up phenomenon of numerical model.With the addition of LMIE data,the accuracy of 1-12 h precipitation forecast could be further improved.

关 键 词：LMIE资料 数值试验 降水预报 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P427