全球资产“负利率”的趋势、成因及借鉴  

TheTrend,Cause and Reference of Global Asset"Negative Interest Rate"

作　　者：傅春杨 陈耿宣 Fu Chunyang;Chen Gengxuan

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《西南金融》2020年第10期14-23,共10页Southwest Finance

摘　　要：目前来看,全球经济增速放缓,面临长期停滞,与之对应的利率也在走低,因此随着趋势推进,欧美货币政策正面临流动性陷阱。截至当前,许多欧洲国家都采取了负利率政策。本文基于历史数据和国际经验,基于前人研究总结了利率市场经济环境不利的原因。可知发达经济体的宽松货币政策对于当前的全球低利率乃至负利率环境的形成具有重要影响。同时,人口结构、市场配置效率和无形资产的扩张对实际利率的下降趋势也有着深远的影响。鉴于全球失衡、过度储蓄、货币政策扩展、安全资产稀缺、财富不平等加剧以及老龄化加剧是影响负利率的核心机制,本文分析介绍了与中国相对应的一些基本情况,并提出了相应的政策建议。At present,the global economic growth is slowing down and facing long-term stagnation.The corre⁃sponding interest rate is also falling.Therefore,follow the trend,European and American monetary policies are fac⁃ing a liquidity trap.Up to now,many European countries have adopted negative interest rate policies.Based on his⁃torical data and international experience,this article summarizes the reasons for the unfavorable economic environ⁃ment of the interest rate market based on previous studies.It can be seen that the loose monetary policies of ad⁃vanced economies have an important impact on the formation of the current global low interest rate and even nega⁃tive interest rate environment.At the same time,the demographic structure,market allocation efficiency and the ex⁃pansion of intangible assets also have a profound impact on the downward trend of real interest rates.Given that glob⁃al imbalances,excessive savings,expansion of monetary policy,scarcity of safe assets,increased wealth inequality,and increased aging issue are the core mechanisms affecting negative interest rates,this article analyzes and intro⁃duces some basic situations related to China,and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：负利率 杠杆率 货币政策 量化宽松 产业结构 人口结构 利率期限结构 安全资产 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学] F820