一种机械元件失效概率计算的方法  

A NEW FAILURE PROBABILITY COMPUTING METHOD FOR MECHANICAL COMPONENTS

作　　者：张艳芳[1] 张艳林 ZHANG YanFang;ZHANG YanLin(Department of Mathematics,Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Technology,Sanhe 065201,China;Department of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Sanhe 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院数学教研室,三河065201 [2]华北科技学院机电工程学院,三河065201

出　　处：《机械强度》2020年第5期1125-1129,共5页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：2018年河北省高等教育改革与实践项目(2018GJJG463);防灾科技学院教学团队建设项目(JT201707)资助。

摘　　要：基于单变量降维法、Edgeworth级数和统计矩的关系提出了一种机械元件失效概率计算的方法。应用单变量降维法计算响应原点矩,写出Edgeworth级数计算失效概率的近似式。在近似式中将中心矩用原点矩代替,从而计算机械元件的失效概率。应用所提出的方法非正态随机参数不需要转化为相应的正态随机参数。文章最后一部分给出两个数值计算例子,例子中分别使用所提出的方法和二阶矩法计算失效概率。所得的两个结果分别和Monte-Carlo模拟算法计算结果比较失效概率的精确性和有效性。结果表明所提出的方法可以有效地计算机械元件的失效概率。Based on univariate dimension reduction method(UDRM),edgeworth series and the relation of statistical moment,a method for calculation of failure probability of mechanical components is proposed.The univariate dimension reduction method is applied to calculate the response origin moments of fundamental input random variables.Edgeworth series is used to estimate failure probability of mechanical components by using first few response central moments.The non-normal random parameters need not to be transformed into equivalent normal ones.Two numerical examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method and the second moment method by comparing the failure probability results.The results obtained by the proposed new method and the second moment method are compared with those obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS)respectively.The results show that the new method can calculate the failure probability of mechanical components effectively.

关 键 词：单变量降维积分 失效概率 Edgeworth级数 原点矩 中心矩 

分 类 号：TH123[机械工程—机械设计及理论]