财政政策对经济新旧动能转换的非线性效应  

The Nonlinear Effect of Fiscal Policy on the Replacement of Old Economic Drivers

作　　者：尹希果[1] 冉丹 YIN Xi-guo;RAN Dan(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第10期30-35,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BJL079);重庆市科委软科学重点项目(cstc2016jCCxBX0024)。

摘　　要：构建带有时变参数的马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型,在此基础上展开财政政策对经济新旧动能转换的非线性效应分析,研究发现:(1)在经济衰退时期,增加财政支出、提高教育支出占比、降低公共服务支出占比,减少税收、降低营业税与所得税占比的财政操作组合更利于新旧动能转换;(2)在经济高涨时期,减少财政支出、增加科技支出与投资性支出占比,减少税收、降低消费税占比、提高增值税占比的财政操作组合更利于新旧动能转换;(3)在经济平稳时期,减少财政支出、提高教育支出占比、降低公共服务支出占比,增加税收、降低消费税占比、提高增值税占比的财政操作组合更利于新旧动能转换。Building markov area system with time-varying parameter conversion vector autoregressive model,on the basis of the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy on economic shifts kinetic energy analysis,the study found that:(1) During the recession,increased fiscal spending,increase education expenditure proportion,to reduce the expenditure proportion of public service,and reduce taxes,to reduce the business tax and income tax accounted for more than financial operations to old and new kinetic energy conversion;(2) In an economic boom,a combination of fiscal operations that reduces fiscal expenditure,increases the proportion of science and technology expenditure and investment expenditure,and reduces tax revenue,reduces consumption tax and increases the proportion of value-added tax is more conducive to the conversion of old growth drivers into new ones;(3) In a stable economic period,the fiscal operation combination of reducing fiscal expenditure,increasing the proportion of education expenditure and reducing the proportion of public service expenditure,increasing tax revenue,reducing consumption tax and increasing value-added tax is more conducive to the transformation of new growth drivers.

关 键 词：财政政策 经济新旧动能转换 非线性效应 MS-VAR 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学] F124