数据驱动的设备时变可靠度评价及故障预测  

Data-driven time-varying reliability evaluation and fault prediction of equipment

作　　者：林子昕[1] 王少琦 安维中[1] 别海燕[1] LIN Zixin;WANG Shaoqi;AN Weizhong;BIE Haiyan(Department of Chemical Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学化学化工学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《化工进展》2020年第11期4351-4356,共6页Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress

摘　　要：针对化工设备的可靠性随时间或载荷作用次数等寿命指标发生变化这一问题,在传统可靠性模型基础上构造了一种考虑设备运行影响因素的可靠度评价方法,可处理化工设备的运行工况、载荷、应力和强度等参数随时间变化的可靠性计算问题。该方法首先利用传统威布尔分布可靠性模型对设备进行可靠性评价,计算设备的可靠性参数;采用灰色关联分析选择影响威布尔分布模型参数的主要因素,然后应用响应面法,在基于威布尔分布的失效速率模型中引入设备运行的影响因素,建立多变量故障失效速率模型,在此基础上对设备进行时变可靠度评价,并对设备进行简单的故障预测。最后将该方法应用于某化工设备,对其进行时变可靠度评价和设备故障时间预测,验证了该方法的有效性。In view of the problem that the reliability of chemical equipment changes at time or times of loading and other life indexes,a reliability evaluation method considering the factors affecting the operation of equipment was constructed based on the traditional reliability model,which can deal with the reliability calculation problems of operating condition,load,stress and strength changing with time.Firstly,the traditional Weibull distribution model was used to evaluate the reliability of the equipment and the main factors affecting Weibull distribution model parameters were selected by grey correlation analysis.Then,response surface method was applied to introduce the influencing factors of equipment operation into the failure rate model based on Weibull distribution and to establish a multivariable failure rate model.On this basis,time-varying reliability evaluation and fault prediction can be carried out.Finally,the method was applied to a chemical equipment to evaluate its time-varying reliability and predict its failure time,which can verify the effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：时变可靠度 威布尔分布 灰色关联分析 响应面法 预测 模型 安全 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]