满洲里口岸—城市关系演变的多尺度因素影响分析  

Multi-scale factors influencing the evolution of Manzhouli port-city relationship

作　　者：杨青山 刘鉴[1,3] 张郁 杨维旭[4] YANG Qingshan;LIU Jian;ZHANG Yu;YANG Weixu(School of Geographical Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains,Ministry of Education,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Center of Urbanization and Regional Development,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Tong'an No.1 High School of Fujian,Xiamen 361100,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,长春130024 [2]东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室,长春130024 [3]东北师范大学城镇化和区域发展研究中心,长春130024 [4]福建省同安第一中学,厦门361100

出　　处：《地理学报》2020年第10期2146-2163,共18页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771126,41271555)。

摘　　要：沿边口岸是"一带一路"倡议中各主权国家之间经济合作的关键节点。本文以中俄边界往来最密切的口岸城市满洲里为例,首先,通过构建改进动态集中指数(MDCI),将满洲里口岸-城市关系划分为低水平平衡发展阶段(1979-1987年)、口岸发展稍快于城市发展阶段(1988-1997年)、口岸发展大幅快于城市发展阶段(1998-2005年)、城市发展稍快于口岸发展阶段(2006-2015年)和口岸与城市关系新突变点(2016-2017年)。其次,应用向量自回归模型(VAR),分析了国家、区域、地方和个体4个尺度对满洲里口岸-城市关系影响的程度,研究表明:在全时段上,表现为国家尺度>个体尺度>地方尺度>区域尺度的关系;低水平平衡发展阶段,表现为国家尺度影响较大,区域尺度、地方尺度和个体尺度影响较小;口岸发展稍快于城市发展阶段,以国家尺度影响为主,其中,俄罗斯影响稍大于中国,其他尺度影响均较小;口岸发展大幅快于城市发展阶段,国家、区域及个体尺度均起到了重要作用,且作用大小相对均衡;城市发展稍快于口岸发展阶段,国家尺度、区域尺度、地方尺度作用较明显,个体尺度影响弱化,其中,区域尺度影响最大,之后表现为国家尺度(俄罗斯)>地方尺度>国家尺度(中国)>个体尺度的关系。口岸与城市关系新突变点,个体尺度与国家尺度影响较大,区域尺度与地方尺度影响较小。最后,综合运用VAR模型、深度访谈等定量和定性分析方法,从国家、区域、地方及个体尺度因素对口岸-城市关系演变的影响机理进行了全时段和分阶段的分析。本研究可为满洲里促进口岸-城市关系的良性发展提供多尺度视角的新思路,也可为中国广大边境地区探讨口岸-城市关系的发展提供借鉴。Border ports are the key nodes for economic cooperation among the sovereign countries at the Belt and Road Initiative.This study takes Manzhouli,the most closely connected port city on the Sino-Russian border,as an example.Firstly,by constructing the Modified Dynamic Concentration Index(MDCI),this study divided the process of the port-city relationship in Manzhouli into five stages:low level balanced development stage(1979-1987),port development slightly faster than the urban development stage(1988-1997),port development significantly faster than the city development stage(1998-2005),city development slightly faster than the port development stage(2006-2015),and new abrupt change point of port-city relationship(2016-2017).Secondly,the vector autoregressive model(VAR)is used to analyze the degree of influence at national,regional,local and individual scales on the Manzhouli port-city relationship.The research shows that in the whole period,the influence of different scales is manifested as national scale>individual scale>local scale>regional scale;at low level balanced development stage,the influence of national scale is larger,while that of regional,local and individual scales has less impact;at port development slightly faster than the urban development stage,with national scale as the main factor,the influence of Russia is slightly greater than that of China,and that of other scales is small;at port development significantly faster than the city development stage,all the national,regional and individual scales play an important role,and the role is relatively balanced;at city development slightly faster than the port development stage,the role of national,regional and local scales is more obvious,and the impact of individual scale is weakened.Among them,the regional scale has the largest impact,and the national scale(Russia)>local scale>national scale(China)>individual scale;at the new abrupt change point of port-city relationship,the influence of individual and national scales is larger,while that of regional

关 键 词：沿边口岸 口岸—城市关系 多尺度 影响因素 改进动态集中指数 满洲里 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F127