碳交易政策对高污染工业企业经济绩效的影响——基于多重中介效应模型的实证分析  

The impact of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises:Empirical analysis based on multiple mediating effect model

作　　者：任晓松[1] 马茜 刘宇佳 赵国浩[3] REN Xiaosong;MA Qian;LIU Yujia;ZHAO Guohao(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030031,China;School of Accounting,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030031,China;School of Business Administration,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030031,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,太原030031 [2]山西财经大学会计学院,太原030031 [3]山西财经大学工商管理学院,太原030031

出　　处：《资源科学》2020年第9期1750-1763,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71774105);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJCZH143);山西省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2019W064)。

摘　　要：以中国2011年出台的碳交易政策作为一次天然外生冲击,选取2010—2018年微观企业数据构造准自然实验,分别采用三重差分模型及多重中介效应模型研究该政策对高污染工业企业经济绩效的影响,验证碳交易政策能否实现经济红利及其传导机制。结果发现:①碳交易政策显著提升了高污染工业企业的经济绩效,实现了经济红利。②机制检验表明:碳交易政策可通过低碳补助扶持效应、企业获益激励效应和研发创新动力效应间接影响高污染工业企业经济绩效,其中企业获益激励效应和研发创新动力效应两类机制表现出促进作用,而低碳补助扶持效应呈现出遮掩效果。③异质性分析显示:就总效应而言,碳交易政策对非国有企业和小规模企业经济绩效的提升效果更优;就中介效应而言,碳交易政策对国有企业和大规模企业经济绩效的总体中介效应明显,对非国有企业和小规模企业经济绩效只存在部分显著的并行及链式中介效应。本文从微观视角对中国碳市场理论构建作了有益补充,为碳交易政策的差异化实施和高污染工业企业减排增效机制设计提供了数据支持和政策建议。Taking China’s carbon trading policy introduced in 2011 as a natural exogenous shock,this study used the micro-enterprise data from 2010 to 2018 to construct a quasi-natural experiment.The triple difference model and multiple mediating effect models were used to examine the impact of this policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises,and to verify whether carbon trading policies can achieve economic dividends and its transmission mechanisms.The results show that:(1)Carbon trading policy significantly improves the economic performance of high-pollution industrial enterprises and realizes economic dividends.(2)Mechanism test shows that the carbon trading policy can indirectly affect the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises through the low-carbon subsidy support effect,corporate benefit incentive effect and R&D innovation dynamic effect.Enterprise benefit incentive effect and innovation motivation effect show positive effects,while the support effect of low-carbon subsidies shows a concealing effect.(3)The heterogeneity analysis shows that,in terms of the overall effect,carbon trading policy has a better effect on the economic performance of nonstate-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises.As for the mediating effect,the whole mediation effect of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of state-owned enterprises and large-scale enterprises is obvious,and there are only some significant parallel and chainmediated mediation effects on the economic performance of non-state-owned enterprises and smallscale enterprises.This study makes a beneficial supplement to the theoretical construction of China’s carbon market from a micro perspective,and provides data support and policy suggestions for the differentiated implementation of carbon trading policies and the design of emission reduction and efficiency enhancement mechanism for highly polluting industrial enterprises.

关 键 词：碳交易政策 企业经济绩效 三重差分模型 多重中介效应模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F425F406.7