我国矿井瓦斯涌出量预测技术研究进展及发展方向  

Research Progress and Development Direction of Mine Gas Emission Forecast Technology in China

作　　者：秦玉金 苏伟伟 姜文忠 陈煜朋[2,3,4] QIN Yujin;SU Weiwei;JIANG Wenzhong;CHEN Yupeng(China Coal Technology&Engineering Group Shenyang Research Institute,Fushun 113122,China;State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Safety Technology,Fushun 113122,China;China Coal Research Institute,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]煤科集团沈阳研究院有限公司科技发展部,辽宁抚顺113122 [2]煤科集团沈阳研究院有限公司,辽宁抚顺113122 [3]煤矿安全技术国家重点实验室,辽宁抚顺113122 [4]煤炭科学研究总院,北京100013

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2020年第10期52-59,共8页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：辽宁省“百千万人才工程”资助项目(辽人社函〔2020〕78号);辽宁省中央引导地方计划资助项目(2019JH6/10200003)。

摘　　要：通过系统调研,总结了我国矿井瓦斯涌出量预测技术从20世纪50年代至今历经的4个重要发展阶段,重点阐述了分源预测法、矿山统计法、瓦斯地质数学模型法、灰色预测法、神经网络预测法及组合预测法的基本原理、优缺点及适用范围,并结合现场应用现状,详细剖析了各种预测方法存在的问题。最后,围绕矿山机械化和智能化的发展目标,提出了3项技术攻关:完善分源预测参数科学选值、推进瓦斯地质模型预测技术模块化、集成化和组建信息化高端融合模型,为今后矿井瓦斯涌出量预测技术研究指明了方向。Based on the systematic investigation,this paper summarizes the four important development stages of the prediction technology of mine gas emission in China from 1950 s to now.It focuses on the basic principles,application scope,advantages and disadvantages of the source based prediction method,mine statistical method,gas geological mathematical model method,grey prediction method,neural network prediction method and combination prediction method.The main problems of each prediction method are analyzed in detail with the field application status.Finally,centering on the development goals of mine mechanization and intelligentization,three technological breakthroughs are proposed:improving the scientific selection of predictive parameters of source separation,promoting the modularization and integration of gas geological model prediction technology,and establishing information-based high-end fusion model,which points out the direction for future research on gas emission prediction technology.

关 键 词：瓦斯涌出量 分源预测 矿山统计 灰色理论 神经网络 组合预测 动态预测 

分 类 号：TD712[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]