新一轮输配电价监管周期下的电网投资规模预测——基于优化的支持向量机模型  

Forecast of Power Grid Investment Scale in the New Round of Transmission and Distribution Price Supervision Cycle:Based on Optimized Support Vector Machine Model

作　　者：王玲 吴鸿亮 彭道鑫 Wang Ling;Wu Hongliang;Peng Daoxin(China Southern Power Grid Energy Development Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Guangzhou 510530,China)

机构地区：[1]南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司,广州510530

出　　处：《技术经济》2020年第10期45-53,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目“电网投资全过程管控策略及方法研究”(ZBKJXM20180367)。

摘　　要：输配电价改革改变了电网企业的盈利模式,由购售电价差转变为获取输配电准许总收入,而该收入与有效投资规模紧密相关,这对电网企业投资和资产管理都提出了更高的要求,需要分析企业发展的内外部环境,对不同边界条件下的投资规模进行分析预测。本文首先分析了电网企业投资的主要影响因素,然后利用樽海鞘群优化算法优化的支持向量机模型对某市电网公司投资规模在不同边界条件下进行预测分析,最后给出相应的结论与建议。结果表明:影响电网公司投资规模的因素有GDP、售电量、常住人口、高峰负荷、第二产业结构、资产净值率、资产负债率、净资产收益率以及运行维护费;通过支持向量机模型预测样本地区电网公司2025年在不同边界条件下投资规模在122亿~153亿元;敏感度分析中,投资规模对GDP和售电量的敏感度最高,分别为0.6和0.5。In the context of the power system reform,the transmission and distribution price reform has changed the profit model of power grid companies from the difference between the purchase and sale of electricity to the acquisition of the total permitted income from transmission and distribution,which is closely related to the effective investment scale.Thus,higher requirements are put forward,and the investment scale under different boundary conditions needs to be analyzed and predicted.Therefore,the main influencing factors of grid enterprise investment is firstly analyzed,and then the support vector machine optimized is used by optimization algorithm to predict and analyze the investment scale of the grid enterprise under different boundary conditions,and finally the corresponding conclusions and recommendations is gave.The results show as follows.The factors affecting the investment scale of a grid enterprise are GDP,electricity sales,resident population,peak load,secondary industry structure,net asset value ratio,asset-liability ratio,return on equity,and operation and maintenance costs.Through the support vector machine model,it is predicted that the investment scale under different boundary conditions in 2025 will be between 122 billion yuan and 153 billion yuan.In the sensitivity analysis,the investment scale of the grid enterprise has the highest sensitivity to GDP and electricity sales,with sensitivity of about 0.6 and 0.5 respectively.

关 键 词：输配电价改革 电网投资 投资规模 敏感性分析 支持向量机 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]