互联网信息交互网络与股价崩盘风险:舆论监督还是非理性传染  

Information Interaction Network and Price Crash Risk:Public Opinion Supervision or Irrational Contagion

作　　者：朱孟楠[1] 梁裕珩 吴增明 ZHU Meng-nan;LIANG Yu-heng;WU Zeng-ming(School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2020年第10期81-99,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“中国外汇储备的科学管理及战略问题研究”(批准号12JZD027);国家自然科学基金面上项目“重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下的全球金融风险溢出及其管理研究”(批准号72073113)。

摘　　要：采用社会网络分析方法考察资本市场信息传递的做法逐渐引起学者们的关注,然而中小投资者在互联网上形成的社交网络却未得到足够的重视。中国股市的特点之一就是散户占比较大,这些“草根”散户通过互联网新兴媒体形成的庞大互联网信息交互网络是加强了上市公司的有效监督,还是加剧了非理性情绪的扩散?本文以2010—2018年的非金融类上市公司为研究样本,构建中小投资者在东方财富股吧论坛的信息交互网络。研究发现:网络中心度越高,处于网络中心位置的上市公司,股价崩盘风险越低,验证了中小投资者的网络舆论监督效应。当上市公司处于网络舆论“聚光灯”下,管理层难以掩盖负面信息,这样有助于缓解股东与管理层之间的信息不对称性,进而有助于降低风险累积的可能性,因此,互联网信息交互网络的信息传播及其监督效应是对现行上市公司监管措施的有效补充。进一步分析表明:当管理层持股比例较高、独立董事占比较低时,互联网信息交互网络的网络舆论监督效应更为显著。本文既拓展了股价崩盘风险问题的研究,也探索了中小投资者参与公司治理监督的新途径,还为监管机构在互联网新媒体环境下如何加强对中小股东利益的保护提供了新思路。The use of social network analysis to investigate the information transfer in the capital market has gradually attracted the attention of scholars,however the social network based on retail investors on the Internet has not received enough attention.One of the characteristics of China’s stock market is that retail investors account for a large proportion.Do the huge size social networks formed by“grassroots”retail investors strengthen the effective supervision of listed companies or intensify the contagion of irrational emotions?This paper constructs an information interaction network of retail investors in the East Money Guba Stock Fortune,using non-financial listed companies’data from 2010 to 2018 as a research sample.This paper shows that the higher the network centrality of a listed company,i.e.in the center of network,the lower stock price crash risk,which confirms the effect of retail investors’network public opinion supervision.The management of listed companies under the spotlight of online public opinion is difficult to conceal negative information,which lowers the information asymmetry between shareholders and management and reduces the possibility of risk accumulation.Thus,the information dissemination of the information interaction network and its supervision effect are effective supplements to the current management of listed companies.Further analysis shows that when the management’s shareholding is high or the percentage of independent directors is relatively low,the Internet public opinion supervision effect of the information interaction network is more significant.The contributions of this paper are:this paper not only deepens the research on the stock price crash risk,but shows the new supervision by retail investors in corporate governance,and also provides new ideas for regulatory authorities to strengthen the protection of retail shareholders’interest in the new social media environment.

关 键 词：信息交互网络 网络中心度 网络监督 股价崩盘风险 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]