基于无限边坡模型和概率理论的区域边坡可靠度计算研究  

Regional Slope Reliability Calculation Based on Infinite Slope Model and Probability Theory

作　　者：高焕翔 何宇康 张彪 李文彬 黄发明 GAO Huanxiang;HE Yukang;ZHANG Biao;LI Wenbin;HUANG Faming(School of Qianhu,Nanchang University,Nanchang330031,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Nanchang University,Nanchang330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学前湖学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学建筑工程学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2020年第6期58-67,共10页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41807285);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M652287);江西省自然科学基金项目(20192BAB216034);江西省博士后基金项目(2019KY08)。

摘　　要：区域边坡稳定性分析的研究一直是地质灾害研究的重点。物理模型能有效地反映边坡稳定性预测的物理力学机制,且可解释性较强。但现有物理模型未能真实地考虑地形坡度因素对边坡稳定性计算结果的影响,且其大多未考虑边坡土体力学参数的空间变异性特征。为解决这些问题,对无限边坡模型的地形坡度进行定值优化,利用地形坡度分布特征来修正边坡土体的抗剪强度参数,并利用基于概率论的蒙特卡洛法探讨边坡土体抗剪强度参数的空间变异性,最终开发出全新的边坡可靠度计算模型(Regional Infinite Slope and Probability theory based slope Reliability Mapping,RISPRM)。最后以江西省赣州市宁都县为研究区,分别采用RISPRM模型和代表传统物理模型的SINMAP模型对该区域边坡可靠度进行计算,经频率比和预测率曲线精度对比,结果显示:RISPRM模型相对于传统物理模型能更好地预测危险区域滑坡灾害,预测效果更好且更符合野外实际情况;该模型有效地解决了传统物理模型中存在的低坡度区边坡稳定性计算结果随坡度变化不稳定、中高坡度区边坡稳定性计算结果随坡度增大而单调下降以及计算结果未考虑地质条件的时间和空间变化等问题。The study of regional slope stability analysis is the focus of geological hazard research worldwide.Physical models can effectively reflect the physical and mechanical mechanism of regional slope stability prediction with strong interpretability.However,the existing physical models fail to truly consider the influence of slope factor on the calculation result of slope stability,and most of them do not take the spatial variability of mechanical parameters of the slope soil into consideration.In order to solve these problems,this paper firstly optimizes the slope of the infinite slope model,and modifies the shear strength of the landslide soil based on the terrain slope,then introduces the Monte Carlo probability method to discuss the spatial variation of shear strength,and finally proposes a new slope reliability calculation method,i.e.,Regional Infinite Slope and Probability Theory based Slope Reliability Mapping(RISPRM).Taking Ningdu County,Ganjiang City,Jiangxi Province as study area,the paper uses the RISPRM model and traditional physical model,namely,SINMAP to calculate the slope reliability of the area.By comparing the frequency ratio and the prediction curve accuracy,the results show that the RISPRM model has significantly higher accuracy than SINMAP model in prediction of slope hazard,especially in the dangerous areas.The RISPRM model effectively solves a number of problems such as calculation results being unstable with the change of gentle slope,calculated slope stability decreasing monotonously with the increase of middle and steep slope,the change of time and space of geological conditions being not taken into consideration,etc..It can be concluded that the calculation results of the RISPRM model are more consistent with the field survey results than traditional physical model.

关 键 词：无限边坡模型 频率比 基于概率论的蒙特卡洛法 边坡可靠度 地理信息系统 SIMMAP模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]