基于D-S理论的水灾后砌体结构安全性评定  

Safety assessment of the masonry structure as a result of flood hitting based on the D-S evidence theory

作　　者：郭海东[1] 李慧民[1] 孟海[2] 肖琛亮 张慧云 GUO Hai-dong;LI Hui-min;MENG Hai;XIAO Chen-liang;ZHANG Hui-yun(College of Civil Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture&Technology,Xi'an 710055,China;Central Research Institute of Building and Construction Co.,Ltd.,China Metallurgical Group Corporation,Beijing 100088,China;Transportation Construction Investment Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450006,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院,西安710055 [2]中冶建筑研究总院有限公司,北京100088 [3]郑州交通建设投资有限公司,郑州450006

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第5期1630-1636,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908452);陕西省重点研发计划重点项目(2018ZDXM-SF-096)。

摘　　要：为提高水灾后砌体结构安全性评定的准确性,首先,基于现行标准与相关致灾机理,有针对性地构建了安全性评定指标体系。然后,引入D-S证据理论以有效处理评定过程中突出的未确知性与不确定性,进而在提出评定信息融合结构的基础上,建立了水灾后砌体结构安全性评定模型。最后,将模型应用于工程实例,并与可拓评价法进行对比,结果表明,模型评定结果能够准确反映目标结构的安全状况与薄弱部位,从而为加固及修复工作提供必要的决策依据。The given paper is to focus itself on the application of the D-S evidence theory to the safety evaluation of the masonry structure after flood. As is well known,accurate and efficient safety evaluation of the masonry structure after flood should be the key to the prompt recovery of production and people’s living conditions. And,for such a need,we have established an index system for the safety evaluation of the masonry structure after flood in accordance with the national standards and the related disaster-hitting mechanism,which may involve 7 characteristic indexes,including the site stability,the adverse effects of the immersion,etc. And,to satisfy the need of the said index system,it is supposed that the system should consist of 3 kinds of indexes at the different grades,including the 3 first-grade evaluation indexes,the 7 second-grade evaluation indexes and 27 third-grade evaluation ones. What is more,due to the obvious uncertainty of the safety evaluation information,it is necessary to propose a reasonable way of information collection and fusion via D-S evidence theory. Besides,the index weights have also to synthesize the evaluation results in conformity with its characteristic features of the high-degree integration by integrating the analytic hierarchical process( AHP) and the entropy value method( EVM). And,finally,the proposed model should also be able to use as an engineering example and brought into comparison with the extension evaluation method. Thus,the results can be expected to demonstrate that the evaluation process and the corresponding results should be more rigorous and accurate so as to reflect the safety situation and the weak sections of the masonry structures directly. Thus,the conclusions of the calculation can be expected to be consistent with the actual security status-in-situ in line. And,it is just in so-doing that the aforementioned D-S evidence theory evaluation method we have adopted can be regarded as being feasible and rational. And,therefore,it can be expected to provide a c

关 键 词：安全工程 砌体结构 水灾 安全性 评定 D-S证据理论 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]