基于FRAM的进近管制安全分析  

System safety analysis for the approach control based on the FRAM method

作　　者：陈芳[1] 陈茜 CHEN Fang;CHEN Xi(College of Economic&Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第5期1788-1794,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：2019年民航局安全能力项目(ASSA2019/19)。

摘　　要：进近管制系统是一个功能高度耦合、风险高度集成的社会技术复杂系统。为了阻断进近管制系统性能变化的传播,降低系统运行风险水平,运用功能共振事故模型(FRAM)对进近管制系统进行了安全分析。运用层次任务分析识别了进近管制系统各功能,并在描述各功能基础上构建了进近管制系统FRAM功能网络图。采用蒙特卡洛方法对FRAM进行量化改进,借助@RISK模拟出各功能的性能变化及潜在耦合,识别了进近管制系统中容易出现功能共振的关键功能和路径,并制定了性能变化防控屏障。结果表明,FRAM可以解释进近管制系统的非线性耦合,进近管制系统中飞行员/进近管制员建立通信等7个功能容易出现功能共振,并确定出了进近管制系统可能失效的关键路径。The given paper is inclined to reduce the operating risk level of the control approach system. For the said purpose,we have adopted the FRAM method in the paper to explore the complex nonlinear interaction of functions in the approach control system,whereas the system barrier for the failure functions can help to block the transmission of the system variation. What is more,in the research process,we have managed to divide the approach control system into 12 functions,including the preparation for the control,the radar system and so on through the hierarchical task analysis. And,then,each function can be described from the following 6 aspects,that is,the input( I),the output( O),the time( T),the control( C),the resource( R)and the premise( P),by building up a functional map according to the hexagonal function description. In addition,the output variability of each function should be analyzed and specified by the time and their actual precisions. In order to quantify the output variability,it is necessary to define the function types of the personnel precisely,as well as the technology and the organization. What is more,we have also managed to determine the probability distribution of the time and the accuracy of each type through the expert interview and suggestions. And,later,with the aid of @ RISK,we have been trying to find the probability distribution of the performance variability of each function and functional performance coupling with the Monte Carlo rule. And,next,when the performance coupling over 18 is found greater than 5%,the system produce resonance. As a result,we have determined that there exist 7 functions vulnerable to the functional resonance,including the coordination and transferring( in the upper control areas),the communications system to be set up among the pilots and the approach controller,besides the radar recognition,the building situational awareness and planning,the monitoring,the coordination and transference( of the next control area),as well as the aircraft taking-off waves. Beside

关 键 词：安全管理工程 进近管制 功能共振事故模型(FRAM) 蒙特卡洛 层次任务分析(HTA) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]