云南省泥石流灾害影响因子分析  

Analysis on influencing factors of debris flow disasters in Yunnan Province

作　　者：孙显辰 王保云[1] 刘坤香 彭娟 孔艳[1] 张祝鸿 SUN Xianchen;WANG Baoyun;LIU Kunxiang;PENG Juan;KONG Yan;ZHANG Zhuhong(School of information,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学信息学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《人民长江》2020年第11期121-127,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61966040);云南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(DC2019039)。

摘　　要：云南省由于地形陡峻和降水集中等特点,极易发生泥石流灾害。引发泥石流灾害的影响因子复杂多样,在全面考虑云南省独特区域环境的基础上,采用ArcGIS空间分析以及回归分析等方法,选取降雨量、植被类型、高程、土壤类型、土地利用类型和水系分布6个影响因子对云南省泥石流灾害进行时空关系研究。研究结果表明:泥石流灾害数与累年均降雨量之间呈指数关系,当降雨量为8300~9300 mm时泥石流灾害发生数目最多;栽培植被覆盖区域发生的泥石流灾害数量达61.30%,超过阔叶林、针叶林、灌丛和草丛覆盖区域之和;高程2000~2500 m是泥石流灾害的易发区间,而高程大于或小于此区间值时,发生泥石流的可能性降低;较软岩由于抗剪强度小,属于最易发生泥石流灾害的岩性类型;泥石流灾害主要发生在河流的主河道、附近的大小支流,其中91.36%的泥石流灾害与河流主干道的距离均小于21 km。Due to the steep terrain and concentrated precipitation,Yunnan Province is prone to debris flow disasters.The factors that cause debris flow disasters are complex and diverse.On the basis of comprehensive consideration on the unique regional environment of Yunnan Province,using ArcGIS spatial analysis and regression analysis methods,six influencing factors including rainfall,vegetation type,elevation,soil type,land use type and water system distribution are selected to study the time-space relationship of debris flow disasters in Yunnan Province.Research results show:there is an exponential relationship between the number of debris flow disasters and the cumulative annual rainfall.When the rainfall is 8300~9300mm,the number of debris flow disasters is the largest;the number of debris flow disasters in areas covered by cultivated vegetation reached 61.30%,exceeding the sum of the areas covered by broad-leaved forests,coniferous forests,shrubs and grass;the elevation of 2.00~2.50km is an interval prone to debris flow disasters,and when the elevation is greater or less than this interval,the possibility of debris flow is reduced;the softer rock is the most prone to debris flow due to its low shear resistance;debris flow disasters mainly occur in the main channels of rivers and nearby tributaries.Among them,91.36%of debris flow disasters are less than 21 km away from the main river.

关 键 词：泥石流灾害 影响因子 时空关系 ARCGIS 云南省 

分 类 号：TV144[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]