1990~2017年全球膀胱癌发病率和死亡率的研究  

The incidence and mortality of global bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017

作　　者：贺海蓉 李莉[3] 冯敖梓 郭晓娟 吕军[3] HE Hairong;LI Li;FENG Aozi;GUO Xiaojuan;LV Jun(Clinical Research Center,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,P.R.China;School of Public Health,Xi’An Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,P.R.China;Department of Clinical Research,the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510630,P.R.China;Department of Neurology,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学第一附属医院临床研究中心,西安710061 [2]西安交通大学公共卫生学院,西安710061 [3]暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部,广州510630 [4]西安交通大学第一附属医院神经内科,西安710061

出　　处：《中国循证医学杂志》2020年第11期1257-1265,共9页Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:16BGL183);陕西省重点研发计划项目(编号:2020SF-140)。

摘　　要：目的分析1990~2017年全球膀胱癌的发病率和死亡率变化趋势及年龄、时期、出生队列对膀胱癌发病率和死亡率的影响。方法提取全球疾病负担2017(GBD 2017)数据库中1990~2017年膀胱癌年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和死亡率(ASDR)的数据,采用联结点回归模型描述膀胱癌发病率和死亡率的趋势变化,建立年龄-时期-队列模型,分析全球膀胱癌发病率及死亡率的年龄、时期、出生队列效应。结果1990~2017年间,膀胱癌的ASIR和ASDR均有轻微下降。ASIR从1990年的6.42/10万下降到2017年的6.04/10万,年平均变化率为[−0.9%,95%CI(−1.0%,−0.8%)],ASDR从1990年的3.15/10万下降到2017年的2.57/10万,年平均变化率为[−0.4%,95%CI(−0.4%,−0.3%)]。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示随着年龄的增加,膀胱癌发病率和死亡率的风险增大;随着出生队列的推移,膀胱癌的发病率和死亡率的风险降低;而时期对膀胱癌的发病率和死亡率的影响较小。结论全球膀胱癌的发病率和死亡率呈下降趋势,但随着全球人口老龄化进程加快,膀胱癌的发病人数和死亡人数仍不容乐观,应积极采取对策应对老龄化的不利影响。Objectives To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017 and the effects of age,time period and birth cohort on bladder cancer incidence and mortality.Methods Data on agestandardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized death rate(ASDR)of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2017(GBD 2017)database.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change of ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer.The age-period-cohort model was established to analyze the age,period and birth cohort effects on ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer.Results From 1990 to 2017,both ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer decreased slightly.ASIR decreased from 6.42 per 100000 in 1990 to 6.04 per 100000 in 2017,with an average annual percentage change of−0.9%(−1.0%to−0.8%),and ASDR decreased from 3.15 per 100000 in 1990 to 20172.57/100000,with an average annual percentage change of−0.4%(−0.4%to−0.3%).The ageperiod-cohort model results showed that as age increased,the risk of bladder cancer incidence and mortality increased;as the birth cohort progressed,the risk of bladder cancer morbidity and mortality decreased.The time period had little effect on the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer.Conclusions The incidence and mortality of bladder cancer are declining globally.On the other hand,the increase of the aging global population could reverse the incidence and mortality trend,active measures should be taken to address the adverse effects of aging.

关 键 词：膀胱癌 发病率 死亡率 年龄-时期-队列模型 联结点回归模型 

分 类 号：R737.14[医药卫生—肿瘤]