房价收入比对居民租购选择的影响研究  

A Study on the Impact of Housing Price-to-Income Ratio on Residents'Choice of Rent and Purchase

作　　者：陈欣彦 王培龙 董纪昌 李秀婷 董志 Chen Xinyan;Wang Peilong;Dong Jichang;Li Xiuting;Dong Zhi(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee,Beijing 100806;School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中共中央宣传部干部局专家处,北京100806 [3]中国科学院大学创新创业学院,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2020年第11期66-80,共15页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71532013);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273257,71974180)。

摘　　要：本文使用2011年、2013年、2015年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),针对目前租购现状,在国内外已有的研究基础上选取相应的自变量,确定研究框架与研究假设,并建立二分类Logistic模型研究房价收入比对居民租购选择的影响。模型设置了房价收入变量、人口统计特征变量及地区控制变量进行回归检验。研究发现:从城市角度看,房价收入比越高,居民选择购房的概率越低,且中部地区房价收入比对租购比率的影响程度大于东部和西部地区,东北地区和华中地区影响程度大于其他地理分区;从家庭微观数据上看,性别对租购选择影响不明显,年龄、婚姻状况、家庭人口数量、住房公积金、社会保障、学历、家庭资产状况均对居民租购选择有显著影响。This paper uses the data of China household finance survey in 2011,2013 and 2015 to study the current situation of residents'choice of rent and purchase.Based on the existing researches at home and abroad,we select the corresponding independent variables,determine the research framework and research hypothesis,and establish a binary logistic model to study the influence of housing price-to-income ratio on residents'choice of rent and purchase.The model sets the variables of housing price-to-income ratio,demographic characteristics and regional control variables.The results show that the higher the ratio of housing price-to-income,the lower the probability that residents choose to buy a house.In addition,the ratio of housing price-to-income has a greater impact in central China than in eastern and western China,and a greater impact in northeast and central China than in the rest of China.From the perspective of family micro-data,gender has no obvious influence on the choice of rent and purchase,while age,marital status,family population,housing accumulation fund,social security,education background and family assets all have significant influence on the choice of rent and purchase of residents.

关 键 词：房价收入比 租购选择 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]