河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎地理流行特征分析  

Analysis on the geographic epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in Henan province

作　　者：陈伟[1] 王盼盼 郭小芳[1] 康锴[1] 杨改英[1] 李孟磊[1] 赵晓静[1] 杨文杰[1] CHEN Wei;WANG Pan-pan;GUO Xiao-fang;KANG Kai;YANG Gai-ying;LI Meng-lei;ZHAO Xiao-jing;YANG Wen-jie(Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou,Henan 450016,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心应急办,河南郑州450016

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第22期4047-4052,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：河南省新型冠状病毒防控应急攻关项目(201100310800);2019年度河南省医学科技攻关计划(联合共建)项目(LHGJ20190701)。

摘　　要：目的了解河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎的地理流行特征,为下一步科学划分疫情风险等级、制定分区分级精准防控措施提供理论依据。方法选取截至2020年3月16日传染病报告信息系统中河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例,进行描述性流行病学分析,采用SPSS 22.0进行Fisher确切概率和线性趋势检验,采用Arc GIS 10.3进行优化热点分析和IDW插值分析。结果河南省累计报告新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例1 273例,报告死亡22例,病例主要分布在信阳市(278例)、南阳市(156例)、郑州市(143例)、驻马店市(138例)和商丘市(92例),热点县区集中在信阳市、驻马店市和南阳市东部县区。1月24日新增县区主要分布在与湖北接壤的信阳市和南阳市,1月25-27日新增县区主要分布在离湖北相对较远的北部和西部地区。发病数由东南向西北方向逐渐降低。不同临床严重程度的死亡专率差异有统计学意义(Fisher's值=103.410,P=0.001),且存在呈线性关系(Z=216.801,P=0.001,Pearson's R=0.413,P(Approx. Sig.)=0.001))结论河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎早期波及县区主要与1月23日前从湖北返乡人员有关,发病数整体呈现由东南向西北逐渐减少趋势。随着临床严重程度的增加患者病死率也相应升高。Objective The aim of this study was to understand the geographic epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Henan province,and thus to provide theoretical basis for the scientific classification of epidemic risk levels and formulate precise prevention and control measures based on regional classification.Methods All COVID-2019 cases reported through March 16 th 2020 were extracted from China’s Infections Diseased Information System.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was performed.Fisher exact probabilities and linear by linear association were conducted by SPSS 22.0.Optimized hot spot analysis and inverse distance weighted were conducted by ArcGIS 10.3.Results By March 16 th 2020,1273 confirmed cases were reported,of which 22 patients died.The cases were mainly distributed in Xinyang city(278 cases),Nanyang city(156 cases),Zhengzhou city(143 cases),Zhumadian city(138 cases)and Shangqiu city(92 cases).Hot spots were concentrated in Xinyang city,Zhumadian city and the east of Nanyang city.The newly affected counties on January 24 th were mainly distributed in Xinyang city and Nanyang city,and the newly affected counties from January 25 th to 27 th were mainly distributed in the north and west.The number of cases gradually decreased from southeast to northwest.There were statistically significant differences in death rates at different clinical severity levels(Fisher’s value=103.410,P=0.001),and there was a linear relationship(Z=216.801,P=0.001,Pearson’s R=0.413,P(Approx.Sig.)=0.001).Conclusion The early affected counties were mainly caused by returnees from Hubei before January 23 rd.The number of cases showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 地理 流行特征 

分 类 号：R188[医药卫生—流行病学]