广西西江流域近50年气温和降水变化趋势及突变分析  

Change Trend and Mutation Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi in the Past 50 Years

作　　者：谢贤胜 王升 闫妍 胡宝清 XIE Xiansheng;WANG Sheng;YAN Yan;HU Baoqing(Key laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf of Ministry of Education,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,Guangxi,China;School of Geography and Planning,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁师范大学北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530001 [2]南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,广西南宁530001 [3]南宁师范大学广西地表过程与智能模拟重点实验室,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《水力发电》2020年第12期19-25,83,共8页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41807522,41661021,41807012);广西自然科学基金资助项目(2018GXNSFBA281136)。

摘　　要：综合运用克里金插值法、Morlet小波分析法、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,对广西西江流域1970年~2019年气温和降水时空变化趋势和突变情况进行分析。结果显示,流域气温在空间上由西南向东北递减;降水由东北向西南递减,1500 mm等降水量线南北来回推移;气温变暖明显,总体趋势呈现"V"状,先下降后回升;降水呈丰-欠-丰-欠-丰交替演变规律。流域气温主周期为12 a,次周期为4 a。降水的主周期为18 a,次周期为14 a和2 a;全流域气温和降水分别在1997年、2004年发生突变,其中中部气温突变时间有所提前,西部降水突变时间相对滞后。The temporal and spatial change trend and abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation in Xijiang River Basin,Guangxi from 1970 to 2019 are analyzed by using Kriging interpolation method,Morlet wavelet analysis method,Mann-Kendall test and others.The results show that:(a)the temperature decreases spatially from southwest to northeast in the basin,the precipitation decreases from northeast to southwest,and the 1500 mm iso-precipitation line moves back and forth from north to south;(b)the temperature increases obviously,and the overall trend shows V-shape,which first drops and then rises;and(c)the precipitation shows a alternate change law of abundant-deficient.The main period of temperature change is 12 a,and the secondary period is 4 a.The main period of precipitation change is 18 a,and the secondary periods are 14 a and 2 a respectively.The abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation occur in 1997 and 2004 respectively in the whole basin,but the abrupt change time of temperature in the central basin is earlier and the precipitation in the west basin is later.

关 键 词：气象要素 变化趋势 突变分析 MANN-KENDALL检验 西江流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]