信号控制交叉口转向延误概率模型  

Model of controlled intersection turning delay based on probabilistic principle

作　　者：张亚平[1] 陈烨 祁首铭 陆韦辛 廉冠 ZHANG Ya-ping;CHEN Ye;QI Shou-ming;LU Wei-xin;LIAN Guan(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China;School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Architecture and Transportation Engineering,Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,哈尔滨150090 [2]北京大学信息科学技术学院,北京100871 [3]桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,桂林541004

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2020年第6期2113-2121,共9页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：四川省省院省校科技合作研发项目(2019YFSY0024);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0803901).

摘　　要：车辆延误因转向行为而异,为了确定信号控制交叉口车辆不同转向行为产生的延误,基于概率统计原理对转向延误的计算方法进行了研究。通过分析车流运行特点,构建了直行、右转、左转、直右、直左和直左右车道转向延误概率模型。以哈尔滨市为例,采集转向延误的实测和仿真数据分析了模型的适用性。结果显示:各模型拟合效果良好,决定系数均大于0.9,证明该模型在一定条件下具有较好的适用性。本文研究成果可用于计算信号控制交叉口的转向延误,为延误最小的路径规划提供数据支持,也可为交叉口车道设置和信号配时提供理论依据。In controlled intersection,different turning leads to different delay.In order to obtain the delay caused by different vehicle turning behavior,this paper studies the calculation method of turning delay based on probabilistic statistics principle.After analyzing the characteristics of traffic flow in different lanes and considering the influences of initial queuing and signal phase on the delay,a model of controlled intersection turning delay was built,which involves six different lanes,including straight,right turning,left turning,straight+right turning,straight+left turning and straight+right+left turning.The applicability of the model is analyzed by measured and simulated data from Harbin.The results show that determination coefficients of the model for all the six lanes are greater than 0.9,which prove that the model has good applicability under a certain condition.The research achievement can be used to calculate intersection turning delay,which can provide data support for path planning with minimal delay,and it has theoretical significance to lane setting and signal timing at intersections,thus improving the service level at the intersections.

关 键 词：交通运输系统工程 交叉口转向延误 概率统计原理 车流分析 Vissim仿真分析 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]