什么在抬高中国房价:人口还是货币?——基于中国285个地级市的经验研究  

What Is Driving up Chinese House Prices:Population or Currency?——An Empirical Research Based on the 285 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

作　　者：李斌[1] 刘文欢[2] Li Bin;Liu Wenhuan(PBC Qingdao Central Sub-branch,Qingdao 266071,Shandong,China;Business School of Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行青岛市中心支行,山东青岛266071 [2]青岛大学商学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2020年第11期28-34,共7页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“套期保值信息披露、投资者特征差异与投资者判断”(16YJC790065);山东省自然科学基金项目“衍生工具风险披露、动机性推理与投资者的投资判断”(ZR2019BG010);山东省金融学会重点研究项目“预期损失模型、盈余管理与顺周期信贷行为”(2020SDJR38)。

摘　　要：为了辨明人口和货币因素对于房价的总体影响和异质性差异,本文以2007—2016年285个地级市为样本,将货币因素、人口因素和住房价格纳入同一框架进行了经验检验。同时,本文在投资性需求中引入预期变量以体现货币因素对于不同地区房价的结构性影响。研究结果表明:(1)外来人口流入是抬高本地房价的重要因素,中国大规模的人口迁徙进程对于房价上涨具有较强解释作用。人口因素对于东部、西部房价具有异质性影响,其中人口流入对于东部房价的影响更为强烈。同时,城市化水平越高,人口流入对于房价的影响越大。(2)利率及房价预期会对房价产生明显的交叉性影响。在整个研究期内,货币与预期因素对房价影响较大的年份多于人口因素,但是货币与预期因素对于房价异质性的解释并不明显。In order to identify the overall impact and heterogeneity of population and monetary factors on housing prices,this paper takes the 285 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2016 as the samples,combines factors of monetary and population and housing prices within the same framework.At the same time,this paper introduces expected variables into investment demand to reflect the structural impact of monetary factors on different regions.The results show that:(1)the inflow of external population is an important factor driving up the local housing price,and China's large-scale migration process has a strong explanation for the high housing price.Population has heterogeneous influences on east and west housing prices,among which population inflow has a stronger influence on the east housing prices.Meanwhile,the higher the level of urbanization,the greater the impact of population inflow on housing prices.(2)Interest rate and housing price expectation will have an obvious intersectionality impact on housing price.During the whole research period,monetary and expected factors have a greater impact on housing price than population factors.However,the explanation of the heterogeneity of housing price by monetary and expected factors is not obvious.

关 键 词：住房价格 贷款利率 房价预期 人口流动 

分 类 号：F830.572[经济管理—金融学]