和田地区土地资源人口承载力研究  

Research on Population Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in Hotan Area

作　　者：买买提明·热介甫 阿衣古力·克里木拉 王莉琴[1] Maimaitiming Rejiefu;Ayiguli Kelimula;Wang Liqin(School of Biogeography,Hotian Normal College,Hotan 848000,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China)

机构地区：[1]和田师范专科学校生地学院,新疆维吾尔自治区和田848000

出　　处：《农业技术与装备》2020年第11期61-62,64,共3页Agricultural Technology & Equipment

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区社科基金项目“和田地区人口承载力研究”(17BRK033)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：文章通过对人口、粮食、耕地等建立数学模型进行分析与预测,研究和田地区土地潜力及承载能力。研究表明,和田地区土地人口承载力现阶段最佳规模为220×10^4~250×10^4人,2025年为240×10^4~270×10^4人,2030年为260×10^4~290×10^4人,和田地区人口均处于超载状态。因此,严格控制人口增长,保护耕地资源,推广科技农业,提高粮食单产量,从而提升土地人口承载能力,实现和田地区可持续发展。In this paper, the population, grain, cultivated land and other mathematical models are analyzed and predicted to study the land potential and carrying capacity in Hotan area. Research shows that the optimal scale of land population carrying capacity in Hotan is 2.2 million to 2.5 million at this stage, the optimal scale in 2025 is 2.4 million to 2.7 million, and the optimal scale in 2030 is 2.6 million to2.9 million. The population in the region is overloaded. Therefore, strictly control population growth, protect arable land resources,promote scientific and technological agriculture, and increase grain yields, so as to increase the carrying capacity of the land population and achieve sustainable development in Hotan.

关 键 词：和田地区 土地人口承载力 人口预测 粮食安全 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]