高度联通社会的环境机遇和环境风险:对温室气体排放的跨国面板数据分析  

Environmental Opportunities and Risks in Highly-Connected Societies:A Panel Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

作　　者：王琰[1,2] WANG Yan

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院社会学系 [2]南开大学计算社会科学实验室

出　　处：《社会学评论》2020年第6期99-112,共14页Sociological Review of China

基　　金：国家社科基金重大研究专项项目“基于空间管控的生态环境风险防范体系研究”(18VZL014)。

摘　　要：在全球化时代,交通和信息的联通革命性地重塑了人类生活的自然和社会环境,构成高度联通的社会。在环境影响上,高度联通社会具有明显的双重性特征:联通性一方面通过推动经济增长,在消耗大量能源资源的同时排出废弃物,增加温室气体排放,但另一方面也蕴含着社会动力,推动了资源和信息交换,有助于减少排放。基于73个国家8年的跨国面板数据,本研究分析了交通联通手段和网络信息联通对三种主要温室气体排放量的影响。研究发现,尽管在不同类型国家中联通性都通过促进经济发展增加了温室气体排放,在控制了经济发展后,交通联通性仍然给高收入国家带来了较强的环境机遇,但给中低收入国家带来了一定的环境风险;信息联通性在不同发展阶段的国家都遏制了温室气体排放。因此,高收入国家应在可持续发展的基础上促进社会发展和环境保护的双赢;中低收入国家应发挥信息技术等战略性产业的关键作用,改善固有交通方式,转变交通发展政策。本文探讨了联通性包含的物理过程和社会过程及其环境效应,同时也提示我们要综合看待"一带一路"等互联互通进程中可能遇到的环境问题。In the era of globalization, connectivity via transportation and information exchange revolutionarily transformed our natural and social environments, constructing a highly-connected society. This transformation has dual environmental consequences. On the one hand, connectivity is positively associated with economic growth, and thus consumes massive resources and discharges wastes, leading to increases in greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. On the other hand, connectivity contributes to the efficiency of resource and information exchange and indirectly decrease GHG emissions. Based on 8-year panel data from 73 countries, this study examines the impacts of transportation and information connectivity on three major greenhouse gases. Results show that although connectivity leads to GHG emissions through promoting economic development, after accounting for the mediation effect, transportation connectivity brings environmental opportunities by reducing GHG emissions in high-income countries, whereas intensifies environmental risks by increasing GHG emissions in the middle-and low-income countries. Furthermore, information connectivity curbs GHG emissions in all countries. Therefore, high-income countries should continue promoting social development and environmental protection based on sustainable development. Middle-and low-income countries should actively develop information technology and reform their transportation systems. The paper discusses the physical, chemical, and social processes inherent in connectivity and their environmental effects. It implies that"The Belt and Road"initiative and other activities of connections should be systematically evaluated in terms of environmental impacts.

关 键 词：高度联通社会 温室气体 跨国研究 面板数据分析 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]