基于传染病模型的新冠肺炎传播问题研究  

Study on Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Transmission Based on Infectious Disease Model

作　　者：丁美丽 彭润龙 郭荣伟[2] DING Mei-li;PENG Run-long;GUO Rong-wei(Jinan Aima Maternity Hospital,Jinan 250014,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences),Jinan 250353,China)

机构地区：[1]济南艾玛妇产医院,济南250014 [2]齐鲁工业大学(山东省科学院)数学与统计学院,济南250353

出　　处：《齐鲁工业大学学报》2020年第6期68-76,共9页Journal of Qilu University of Technology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金(ZR2018MF016)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒肺炎(以下简称新冠肺炎)已在全球爆发并迅速蔓延,每日确诊病例呈指数型增长趋势,对人类社会产生严重影响,对新冠肺炎传播机制的研究已成为全球迫切关注的问题。基于某一具有代表性地区的真实数据,以传染病SIR模型为基础,结合新冠肺炎传播特点,分别建立我国采取控制措施前SEIR模型和控制措施后SIR-YN模型,对控制后模型参数进行合理估计,并用MATLAB仿真预测。研究结果表明持续的管控措施对控制疫情的快速传播起到重要作用,进而为控制疫情争取更多的时间。The new type of coronavirus pneumonia(hereinafter referred to as the new coronary pneumonia)has broken out and spread rapidly around the world.The number of daily confirmed cases is exponentially increasing,which has a serious impact on human society.Research on the transmission mechanism of new coronary pneumonia has become an urgent issue worldwide.Based on the real data of a representative region,with the aid of theSIRmodel of infectious diseases,combined with the characteristics of the spread of new coronary pneumonia,this paper establishes theSEIRmodel before the control measures and theSIR-YNmodel after the control measures in our country,and estimates the parameters of the model after the control.MATLAB simulation prediction.The results of the study confirm that continuous control measures have an important role in controlling the rapid spread of the epidemic,and then strive for more time to control the epidemic.

关 键 词：传染病模型 控前SEIR模型 控后SIR-YN模型 新冠肺炎传播 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]