基于正态云可拓理论的锚泊安全评价  

Evaluation of anchoring safety based on normal cloud extension theory

作　　者：鲁峰[1] 李伟[1] 宁君[1] 于仁海[1] LU Feng;LI Wei;NING Jun;YU Renhai(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2020年第4期30-35,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61751202,61751205,61572540,U1813203,61803064);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(3132017115);辽宁省自然科学基金(20170540098)。

摘　　要：为提高锚泊安全评价精度,保障船舶锚泊安全,针对传统锚泊安全评价方法未考虑评价等级界限的不确定性和模糊性等问题,将正态云可拓理论应用于锚泊安全评价中。采用层次分析法和基于可拓学的简单关联函数确定权重的方法分别确定锚泊安全评价指标的主观和客观权重,通过经验因子将主观与客观权重进行结合。构建基于正态云可拓理论的锚泊安全评价模型,计算待评物元与标准可拓物元的关联度,通过信息熵理论确定锚泊安全等级。根据信息熵理论定义可信因子,使得评价结果的可信度易于定量计算。实例计算验证了本模型的有效性和优越性。In order to improve the accuracy of anchoring safety evaluation,ensure the ship anchoring safety and solve the problem that the traditional anchoring safety evaluation method does not consider the uncertainty and fuzziness of the evaluation grade restriction,the normal cloud extension theory is adopted to evaluate anchoring safety.The analytic hierarchy process and the method for determining weights based on the simple correlation function of the extenics are used to determine the subjective and objective weights of the anchoring safety evaluation indexes,respectively.The empirical factor is used to combine the subjective and objective weights.The anchoring safety evaluation model based on the normal cloud extension theory is constructed,and the correlation degree between the evaluated matter-element and the standard extension matter-element is calculated.The anchoring safety level is determined by the information entropy theory.The credibility factor is defined according to the information entropy theory,so that the credibility of the evaluation result is easy to be quantitatively calculated.The effectiveness and superiority of the model are verified by the example calculation.

关 键 词：锚泊安全 综合评价 综合权重 云模型 可拓模型 信息熵理论 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]