我国产业结构调整对外部财富的影响机制研究  

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment on External Wealth in China

作　　者：那明[1] 李照丽 Na Ming;Li Zhaoli(School of Economics,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学经济学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2021年第1期33-41,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“估值效应渠道对中国外部财富的调整研究”(项目编号:JZ2015GJQN0417)。

摘　　要：为研究我国产业结构调整对外部财富的作用影响及其影响机制,本文从贸易传导渠道及金融传导渠道出发,建立理论模型,分析并阐述了双渠道传导下,产业结构调整影响外部财富的作用机理,同时运用时变参数状态空间模型进一步验证。研究结果表明,我国产业结构调整通过贸易传导渠道对外部财富起正向积累作用,并从金融传导渠道对外部财富进行负向削减,两者存在抵消效应。且我国第二产业产值比及第三、二产业产值比的扩大对外部财富存在区别影响。当下正处于全球产业链重构关键时期,本文期望从调整外部财富角度助力于我国产业结构的优化。In order to study the effect of China's industrial structure adjustment on external wealth and its influencing mechanism,this paper starts from the trade transmission channel and financial transmission channel,firstly establishes the theoretical model,analyzes and expounds the mechanism of industrial structure adjustment affecting external wealth under the double-channel transmission.At the same time,considering the time variability of China's economic structure,this paper uses the time-varying parameter state space model to further verify this.The results show that the adjustment of industrial structure in China has a positive accumulation effect on external wealth through trade transmission channels and a negative reduction effect on external wealth through financial transmission channels,which have an offset effect.Moreover,the expansion of the secondary industry output value ratio and the tertiary and secondary industry output value ratios have a different impact on external wealth:the output value ratio of the secondary industry has divergent trends on the two-way influence of external wealth,while the output value ratio of the tertiary and secondary industries has convergence trends.At present,we are in the critical period of global industrial chain reconstruction.With this article,we would like to contribute to the optimization and adjustment of China's industrial structure from the perspective of optimizing external wealth.

关 键 词：产业结构 外部财富 KALMAN 滤波 状态空间模型 抵消效应 双渠道传导 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F224[经济管理—国民经济]