厦门市某三甲医院流行性感冒疫情分析  

Analysis on the Epidemic Situation of Influenza in a Grade-A Tertiary Hospital in Xiamen

作　　者：林文斌[1] 秦维霞[1] 祝寒松[2] LIN Wenbin;QIN Weixia;ZHU Hansong(Department of Hospital Infection Management,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University,Xiamen Fujian 361003,China;Emergency Department,Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou Fujian 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学附属第一医院医院感染管理部,福建厦门361003 [2]福建省疾病预防控制中心应急所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《中国卫生标准管理》2020年第23期7-11,共5页China Health Standard Management

摘　　要：目的分析厦门市某三甲医院流行性感冒疫情特征,为相关部门制定防控措施提供依据。方法对厦门市某三甲医院2010年1月—2019年12月网络直报的流行性感冒个案进行流行病学特征分析,并对2020年1—8月发病数进行预测。结果厦门市某三甲医院2010年1月—2019年12月流行性感冒报告发病数2 522例,占比厦门市医疗卫生机构报告数的16.08%。12月份是发病高峰期,占比26.84%。0~5岁组(不含5岁)发病数居前,男性和女性发病数分别为568例和383例,分别占比39.80%和34.98%。学生、散居儿童和幼托儿童发病数居前,共占比80.97%。区县分布依次为:思明(1 168例)、湖里(593例)、集美(411例)、海沧(155例)、同安(109例)、翔安(86例)。时空扫描显示存在3个高时空聚集区和2个低时空聚集区。高时空聚集区分别以新阳街道、灌口镇和五显镇为中心,聚集时间均分布在2018年12月19日—2019年12月31日。ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,2)12为最优预测模型,ME、RMSE、MAE、MPE、MAPE、MASE等准确性指标分别为:0.08、0.81,0.59、-0.30%、0.84、0.05,预测值和实际值吻合较好,准确度较高。2020年1—3月实际发病数与预测值相比,相对误差分别为46.31%、-96.29%和-99.19%。结论该院是厦门市流行性感冒患者诊疗的主要医院之一,ARIMA模型能够对流行性感冒发病数进行较准确的定量预测,相关单位可根据预测值、疫情特征和时空聚集区等针对性制定防控措施。Objective To analyze the characteristics of influenza epidemics in a Grade-A tertiary hospital in Xiamen,and provide evidence for relevant departments to develop prevention and control measures.Methods The epidemiological characteristics of influenza cases network reported directly by the Grade-A tertiary hospital in Xiamen city during January 2010 to December 2019 were analyzed.And the incidence of January to August 2020 was predicted.Results The number of reported influenza cases in the Grade-A tertiary hospital in Xiamen city from January 2010 to December 2019 were 2522,accounting for 16.08%of the reports of medical and health institutions in Xiamen.The incidence was the most in December,accounting for 26.84%.The 0-5 year-old group(excluding 5 years old)had the highest number of onsets,with 568 and 383 cases for men and women,accounting for 39.80%and 34.98%,respectively.Students,diaspora children and children in kindergartens had the highest incidence,accounting for 80.97%of the total.The distribution of districts and counties were:Siming(1168 cases),Huli(593 cases),Jimei(411 cases),Haicang(155 cases),Tong'an(109 cases),Xiang'an(86 cases).The space-time scan showed that there were 3 high-time space-time gathering areas and 2 low-time spacetime gathering areas.High-temporal gathering areas were centered on Xinyang Street,Guankou Town and Wuxian Town,respectively,and the gathering time were all distributed from December 19,2018 to December 31,2019.ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,2)12 was the optimal prediction model,and the accuracy indicators such as ME,RMSE,MAE,MPE,MAPE,MASE were:0.08,0.81,0.59,-0.30%,0.84,0.05.Therefore,the predicted value and the actual value agree well,and the accuracy was high.Compared with the predicted value from January to March 2020,the relative errors were 46.31%,-96.29%and-99.19%,respectively.Conclusion The hospital is one of the main hospitals for diagnosis and treatment of influenza patients in Xiamen.The ARIMA model can accurately predict the incidence of influenza.Relevant departments could for

关 键 词：三甲医院 流行性感冒 疫情 时空扫描 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R511[医药卫生—内科学]