贝叶斯定理在大数据侦查中的应用  

Application of Bayesian Theorem in Big Data Investigation

作　　者：何健坤 He Jian-kun(School of Marxism,Guangdong Police College,Guangzhou 510230,China)

机构地区：[1]广东警官学院马克思主义学院,广东广州510230

出　　处：《政法学刊》2020年第5期21-25,共5页Journal of Political Science and Law

摘　　要：侦查破案是公安工作的重要组成部分,而侦查假说的提出和检验是侦查破案的重要环节,也是调查案件的关键步骤。在"智慧新警务"的背景下,根据已掌握的某些关键证据,可依托警务大数据提出侦查假说,通过贝叶斯定理计算并比较在给定证据及证据集的前提下各个侦查假说成立的概率,以此起到检验和评价作用,同时亦可进行一定的侦查预测。Investigation is an important part of public security work and the proposal and test of investigation hypothesis is not only an important part of investigation, but also a key step of investigation. Under the background of "intelligent new policing" and in accordance with some key evidence, we can rely on policing big data to put forward the investigation hypothesis, and use Bayesian theorem to calculate and compare the probability of each investigation hypothesis under the premise of given evidence and series of evidence in order to enable Bayesian theorem to play a role in testing and evaluation, and at the same time, to make a certain investigation prediction.

关 键 词：大数据侦查 侦查假说 贝叶斯定理 概率 

分 类 号：DF793.7[政治法律—诉讼法学]