长三角城市群CO2排放达峰影响研究  

RESEARCH ON CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION PEAKING IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA URBAN AGGLOMERATION

作　　者：曹丽斌 李明煜 张立 蔡博峰 CAO Li-bin;LI Ming-yu;ZHANG Li;CAI Bo-feng(Center for Climate Change and Environmental Policy,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100012,China;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Environment and Sustainability,University of California Los Angeles,Los Angeles 90095,the United States)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部环境规划院气候变化与环境政策研究中心,北京100012 [2]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [3]加州大学洛杉矶分校环境与可持续发展研究所,加利福尼亚洛杉矶90095

出　　处：《环境工程》2020年第11期33-38,59,共7页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:基于排放-传输-暴露模型的中国碳市场环境影响研究(71673107)。

摘　　要：利用柯布-道格拉斯函数,结合新冠肺炎疫情对中国GDP的影响,预测了2025年长三角城市群CO2排放量,基于历史和未来长三角CO2排放情况,通过CO2排放达峰判断方法,对长三角城市群41个城市达峰进行判断。结果表明:上海市,江苏省南京市、苏州市、无锡市、常州市、镇江市,浙江省杭州市、嘉兴市、湖州市、宁波市、温州市,安徽省池州市、黄山市、芜湖市等城市已经具备达峰的条件,建议这些城市在“十四五”期间提出达峰行动方案,探索CO2排放总量控制制度。By utilizing the Cobb Douglas function and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in China,the carbon dioxide emissions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2025 were predicted.Based on historical trends and future projections of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yangtze River Delta,and integrated with relevant judgement criteria,the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions was evaluated for 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The results showed that some cities including Shanghai,Jiangsu(Nanjing,Suzhou,Wuxi,Changzhou,Zhenjiang),Zhejiang(Hangzhou,Jiaxing,Huzhou,Ningbo,Wenzhou),Anhui(Chizhou,Huangshan,Wuhu)were already qualified for reaching the emission peak.It was recommended that these cities came up with action plans to reach the peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and researched the mechanisms to control the carbon dioxide emissions.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 长三角 二氧化碳 达峰 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]