运营热力隧道衬砌结构可靠度分析及剩余寿命预测研究  

Analysis on the Reliability and Prediction of Residual Life of Lining Structure of the Heat Supply Tunnel

作　　者：张嘉文 雷卫东[1] 贺少辉[3] ZHANG Jiawen;LEI Weidong;HE Shaohui(Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen),Shenzhen 518055;Bureau of Public Works of Longgang of Shenzhen Municipality,Shenzhen 518172;School of Civil Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学深圳研究生院,深圳518055 [2]深圳市龙岗区建筑工务署,深圳518172 [3]北京交通大学土建学院,北京100044

出　　处：《现代隧道技术》2020年第6期93-100,共8页Modern Tunnelling Technology

基　　金：现状热力构筑物结构可靠度评估(C15L01280).

摘　　要：针对北京某供热隧道结构检测情况,将子集模拟法应用于运营隧道衬砌结构安全性方面的可靠度计算中,并通过华-王点集优化样本点的方式改进了子集模拟法,得到了失效概率及可靠度指标。同时,与传统蒙特卡洛法对比发现,在失效概率越低的情况下,改进子集模拟法精确性、高效性越显著。通过时齐的Markov链建立了结构剩余寿命预测的新方法,结合热力隧道混凝土结构碳化规律给出了劣化矩阵的概念及其形式,获取了衬砌结构现时状态的ASI值,并以其为边界条件引入了Bayesian方法进行修正。结果表明,该修正模型能适用于运营热力隧道结构剩余寿命预测。Based on the field investigation on a heat supply tunnel in Beijing,a subset simulation method is adopted to calculate the safety reliability of the operating tunnel lining structure,and the failure probability and reliability index are obtained by improving the subset simulation method through optimizing the sample points of Hua-Wang point set.Compared with traditional Monte-Carlo method,it is found that the lower the failure probability,the more the precision and efficiency of improved subset simulation method.A new method for predicting the residual life of lining structures is established by the homogeneous Markov chains.In light of the carbonization law of concrete structure of heat supply tunnel,the concept and form of deterioration matrix are given,the ASI value of current state of lining structure is obtained,and Bayesian method is introduced to modify the prediction model by taking the current ASI as the boundary condition,with the results showing that the modified Markov chain model is applicable to predicting the residual life of lining structure of the operating heat supply tunnel.

关 键 词：热力隧道 子集模拟法 MARKOV链 碳化 可靠度 剩余寿命预测 

分 类 号：U451[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] TU311.2[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]