区域物流需求影响因素实证分析及总量预测——以湖北省孝感市为例  

Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors and Total Volume Forecasting of Regional Logistics Demand:In the Case of Xiaogan,Hubei

作　　者：左雷 徐柏安 Zuo Lei;Xu Boan(Hubei Institute of Logistics Technology,Xiangyang 441002,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北物资流通技术研究所,湖北襄阳441002

出　　处：《物流技术》2020年第12期39-44,共6页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：在对现有研究进行分析的基础上,以孝感市为例,对国民经济发展水平、固定资产投资、居民消费水平、社会消费品零售总额、外贸进出口总额等社会经济因素以及宏观政策、市场环境、交通基础设施、物流设施设备、科学技术水平等非经济因素进行了定性阐述;然后以货运量为被解释变量、社会经济因素为解释变量,建立多元线性回归模型,对孝感市物流需求影响因素进行了实证分析,并结合DGM(1,1)模型,对总量进行了组合预测;最后提炼了相关结论并指出了进一步的研究方向。In this paper,based on an analysis of existing researches,we explained qualitatively such socio-economic factors as national economic development level,fixed asset investment,household consumption level,total retail sales of consumer goods,total import and export,etc.,as well as non-economic factors such as macro policies,market environment,transportation infrastructure,logistics facilities and equipment,science and technology level,etc.Then,we analyzed empirically the factors affecting the logistics demand of Xiaogan,Hubei using a multiple linear regression model with freight volume as the explained variable and socio-economic factors as the explanatory variable,and used the DGM(1,1)model to make a combinatorial forecasting of the total demand volume of the city.At the end,we reached some relevant conclusions and pointed out the direction for further researches.

关 键 词：区域物流需求 影响因素 实证分析 总量预测 孝感市 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F259.27