乘势而进还是逆势而上:盈余管理的周期性检验  

Riding on the Momentum or Swimming against the Current?A Test on the Procyclicality of Earnings Management

作　　者：周林洁 汪泓[2] Zhou Linjie;Wang Hong(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Science;School of Accounting,Zhejiang Gongshang University)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院 [2]浙江工商大学财务会计学院

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2020年第6期148-156,共9页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18CGL039);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ20G020006);中国社会科学院大学校级新文科研究项目(2020-KYLX04-26)资助。

摘　　要：在全球化加速且经济环境日趋复杂的今天,外部冲击增多导致我国经济增长面临更频繁的短期波动。本文以我国2002-2018年沪深两市A股上市公司为研究样本,探讨了宏观经济波动对上市公司盈余管理行为的影响,并从应计盈余管理和真实活动盈余管理两方面结合企业盈余管理成本做了进一步分析。通过实证检验,本文发现:(1)企业的应计盈余管理和真实活动盈余管理行为都受到宏观经济周期的影响,表现出顺周期性,即在经济繁荣期更有可能向上操纵盈余,在经济缓行期则反之。(2)企业的顺周期盈余管理活动受到其盈余管理成本的影响。具体来说,高行业排名和新会计准则的实施降低了企业进行顺周期盈余管理的操作成本,提高了企业进行顺周期盈余管理的可能性;而上期出现亏损或未达到配股业绩标准的情况则提高了企业进行顺周期盈余管理的结果成本,降低了企业进行顺周期盈余管理的可能性。以上实证结果表明,宏观经济环境波动对企业盈余管理行为产生了重要影响。Economic theory suggests that,influenced by internal and external shocks from economic system,macroeconomic growth presents cyclical fluctuations and goes through different stages such as boom,recession and recovery.The complex global situation has brought about an increasingly complex economic environment,and more external shocks are leading to more frequent short-term fluctuations in China’s economic growth.Ample evidence revealed that macroeconomic environment has impacts on the behavior of microcosmic enterprises.As one of the core issues in corporate financial accounting,earnings management has attracted much attention from the academia and the practice.However,how it is affected by macroeconomic fluctuations has been little studied.Using samples of A-share listed companies during 2002 to 2018,this paper investigates how macroeconomic fluctuations influence the earnings management behavior of companies.Our empirical evidences reveal that both the accrual-based earnings management behavior and the real activity-based earnings management behavior of companies are influenced by macroeconomic cycles.Specifically,companies’earnings management exhibits a procyclical pattern,that is,companies are more likely to conduct positive earnings management during economic boom while they tend to conduct negative earnings management during economic downturn.Moreover,we show that the procyclical earnings management is affected by companies’earnings management cost.Specifically,high rankings in the industry and the implementation of the new accounting standards reduce the operating cost of procyclical earnings management and therefore lead to more severe procyclical earnings management;loss or failing to meet the standards of rights issue increases the resultant cost of procyclical earnings management and therefore mitigates it.Our findings reveal that fluctuations of macroeconomic environment have an important influence on the earnings management behavior of enterprises.Based on previous literature,this paper makes cont

关 键 词：盈余管理 经济周期 盈余管理成本 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]