滑坡预测预报中改进的Pearl模型及其应用  

An improved Pearl model for landslide forecast and its application

作　　者：贺小黑 HE Xiaohei(Beijing Urban Construction Exploration & Surveying Design Research Institute Co. Ltd., Beijing 100101, China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Geotechnical Engineering for Deep Excavation of Urban Rail Transit, Beijing 100101, China;State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China;School of Water Resources & Environmental Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China)

机构地区：[1]北京城建勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,北京100101 [2]城市轨道交通深基坑岩土工程北京市重点实验室,北京100101 [3]东华理工大学核资源与环境国家重点实验室,江西南昌330013 [4]东华理工大学水资源与环境工程学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2020年第6期91-95,共5页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：东华理工大学博士启动基金项目(DHBK2017139);东华理工大学2019年实验技术开放项目(DHSYKF-2019-007)。

摘　　要：针对选点法和变换法在求取Pearl模型参数时误差较大的缺陷,且预报判据缺乏足够论证,可能导致预测预报准确度较低问题,将非线性拟合确定参数的方法应用到Pearl模型的滑坡预测预报中,推导了Pearl模型速度和加速度最大值判据预报滑坡发生时间的计算公式。将非线性拟合确定参数的方法和推导的判据计算公式应用于一些滑坡实例的预报中,结果表明:滑坡实际发生时间介于Pearl模型速度最大值判据和加速度最大值判据的预报时间之间,用Pearl模型加速度最大值判据能起到提前预报的作用。According to the problem that there is bigger error by using selected-point method and alternate method to calculate Pearl model parameters,and the forecast criterion of landslide time lacks enough rationality,and the forecasting accuracy may be lower,the nonlinear fitting method is applied to calculating parameters of Pearl model,and the calculation formulas of forecast time based on the maximum criterion of velocity and acceleration of Pearl model were deduced.By applying nonlinear fitting method and the calculation formula of forecast criterion on actual landslide prediction and forecast.Forecast results indicate that the actual occurrence time of landslide is earlier than the forecast time of velocity maximum criterion and later than the forecast time of acceleration maximum criterion.Taking the forecast time of acceleration maximum criterion of Pearl model as the forecast time of landslide happening can play a role of early warning.

关 键 词：Pearl模型 滑坡预报 判据 速度 加速度 非线性拟合 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]