1980-2018年黄河上游气候变化及其对生态植被和径流量的影响  

Climate change in the upper Yellow River Basin and its impact on ecological vegetation and runoff from 1980 to 2018

作　　者：叶培龙 张强[1,3,4] 王莺[3] 徐丽丽[2] 韩林君[2] 李蓉 YE Peilong;ZHANG Qiang;WANG Ying;XU Lili;HAN Linjun;LI Rong(Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change,Ministry of Education/College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,China;Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;Gansu Meteorological Bureau,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020 [3]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [4]甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第6期967-979,共13页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41630426;41975016);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201913;XXSF202010)。

摘　　要：黄河上游是黄河流域最重要的水源涵养地和产流区,对黄河流域的水资源安全、生态环境和粮食安全有决定性的意义。近年来在西北地区气候暖湿化的背景下,黄河上游气候生态水文等问题受到了各方的高度关注。本文利用卫星遥感数据、格点融合数据和水文监测数据,分析了黄河上游气候的多尺度变化特征及其对植被和径流量的影响。结果表明:1)1980-2018年黄河上游暖湿化趋势呈现全区域较一致的气候特征,温度增加率为0.023℃/a,降水增加率为1.09 mm/a,但同时又存在明显的区域差异性,湟水流域至甘肃中部降水增加最显著,宁蒙荒漠地带增温趋势最明显,2000年以来整个黄河上游降水明显增加。2000年后汇流区与流径区的蒸散发明显增加,但源头区南部波动减少。2)当前的暖湿化有利于黄河上游植被生长,1999年以来汇流区和源头区部分区域的植被增加率达到0.04/(10 a);从长期趋势看,源头区、汇流区植被指数与上年降水呈显著正相关关系,而流径区植被指数与当年降水相关性显著;降水对黄河上游流域植被具有明显的改善作用,而温度对其影响较复杂,各区域不同的植被类型是导致降水、温度、蒸散影响存在差异的可能原因。3)1980-2018年唐乃亥站和兰州站的年径流量均呈减少趋势,但1998年以来两站的年径流量明显增加,兰州站年径流量的增加率是唐乃亥站的近3倍。长期趋势表明,唐乃亥站年径流量与当年降水呈显著正相关关系,兰州站年径流量与当年降水、蒸散的相关系数均明显低于唐乃亥站;从年际波动看,降水是决定年径流量的最主要影响因子,而生态植被、冻土退化、水储量变化及社会活动等因素对径流量的影响也不容忽视。该研究为科学应对黄河上游生态保护及实现黄河流域高质量发展提供了参考依据。The upper Yellow River Basin is the most important water conservation and runoff producing areas in the Yellow River Basin,which is of decisive significance to the water resources security,ecological environment and food security of the Yellow River Basin.In recent years,under the background of warm and humid climate in Northwest China,the climate,ecology,hydrology and other issues in the upper Yellow River Basin have attracted great attention.Based on satellite remote sensing data,grid fusion data and hydrological monitoring data,this paper analyzes the multi-scale variation characteristics of climate and its impact on ecological vegetation and runoff in the upper Yellow River Basin.Results are summarized as follows:(1)From 1980 to 2018,the warming and wetting trend in the upper Yellow River Basin presents a relatively consistent climate characteristics in the whole region.The temperature and precipitation increase rates are 0.023℃/a,1.09 mm/a respectively.However,there are obvious regional differences at the same time.The increasing trend of precipitation is the most obvious over the confluence area of Huangshui River Basin and central part of Gansu Province,and the increasing trend of temperature is the most obvious in the desert area of Ningxia and Nei Monggol.Since 2000,the precipitation in the whole upper Yellow River Basin has increased significantly.After 2000,the actual evapotranspiration increases significantly in the confluence and flow areas but decreases in the south of the source area.(2)The current warm and humid climate is conducive to vegetation growth in the upper Yellow River Basin,and the vegetation growth rate has reached 0.04/(10 a)in the confluence and source areas since 1999.From the long-term trend,the vegetation index in the source and confluence areas has a significant positive correlation with precipitation in the previous year,while the vegetation index in the flow area has a significant correlation with precipitation in the current year.Precipitation has obvious effect on vegetatio

关 键 词：黄河上游 气候变化 多尺度 气候暖湿化 生态和水文影响 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]