中俄粮食资源走廊建设:潜力及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Potential and Influencing Factors of the Construction of Sino-Russian Food Resources Corridor

作　　者：高江涛 李红[1] 邵金鸣 朱坤林[2] GAO Jiang-tao;LI Hong;SHAO Jin-ming;ZHU Kun-lin(College of Economics and Trade,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;School of Economics and Trade,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou,Henan 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]河南工业大学经济贸易学院,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2021年第1期22-29,共8页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“区域果蔬外贸冷链物流模式及其机制创新研究”(71562033);2020年度河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目“新形势下河南打造粮食产业强省的策略研究”(2020-ZZJH-103)。

摘　　要：基于2013~2018年俄罗斯的粮食资源出口数据,利用随机前沿引力模型量化并实证分析影响俄罗斯出口到中国及各个国家粮食资源的各种因素。经过测算各国粮食资源贸易的效率和潜力,得出贸易双方国家人口总数、出口国经济水平、是否临海及FTA协定对粮食资源贸易有积极促进作用;两国之间距离对粮食资源贸易产生抑制作用;进口国GDP总量、关税水平、海运基础设施对粮食资源贸易影响不显著;同时得出中俄粮食资源贸易效率较低,即潜力巨大。根据实证分析结果,提出促进粮食资源国际多元化合作、挖掘并提升国际间粮食资源潜力及效率、发挥新疆地区优势来推动粮食资源走廊建设等政策建议。The article is based on Russia’s grain resource export data from 2013 to 2018.It uses a random frontier gravity model to quantify and empirically analyze various factors that affect Russia’s grain resources exported to China and various countries.After measuring the efficiency of each country’s grain resource trade And potential,it can be concluded that the total population of the two countries,the economic level of the exporting country,whether it is near the sea and the FTA agreement have a positive effect on the trade of food resources;the distance between the two countries has an inhibitory effect on the trade of food resources;the total GDP of the importing country,the tariff level,The maritime infrastructure has little effect on the trade of food resources;at the same time,it is concluded that the trade efficiency of Sino-Russian food resources is low,that is,the potential is huge.According to the empirical analysis results,it put forward targeted policy recommendations such as promoting the international diversification of food resources,tapping and enhancing the potential and efficiency of international food resources,and taking advantage of Xinjiang’s regional advantages to promote the construction of the food resources corridor under the“Belt and Road Initiative”.This is to promote the construction of a community of human destiny.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 随机前沿引力模型 粮食资源走廊 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]