燃煤电厂碳捕集、利用与封存技术和可再生能源储能技术的平准化度电成本比较  

Comparison of levelized cost of electricity between coal-fired power plants with carbon capture,utilization and storage and renewable energy storage technologies

作　　者：魏世杰 樊静丽[1] 杨扬 贾莉[2] 张贤[2] WEI Shijie;FAN Jingli;YANG Yang;JIA Li;ZHANG Xian(Center for Sustainable Development and Energy Policy Research,School of Energy&Mining Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology,Beijing(CUMTB),Beijing 100083,China;The Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21(ACCA21),Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST),Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)能源与矿业学院可持续发展与能源政策研究中心,北京100083 [2]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038

出　　处：《热力发电》2021年第1期33-42,共10页Thermal Power Generation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71874193,71503249,71203008)。

摘　　要：作为同样可调可控的稳定低碳电源,燃煤电厂碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)与可再生能源储能技术的成本竞争性值得进一步探究。本文利用学习曲线模型比较了二者平准化度电成本(CLCOE)在2020—2030年间的竞争性变化,也进一步厘清了弃风弃光省份中二者的CLCOE水平。结果表明:目前,燃煤电厂CCUS较可再生能源储能系统具有竞争优势,如果燃煤电厂CCUS难以得到快速发展,到2028年,将丧失与可再生能源储能竞争的可能;到2030年,燃煤电厂CCUS平价上网的碳价需求水平为136~189元/t,但就目前的碳价发展趋势而言,通过碳收益实现平价上网存在难度;在弃光省份,燃煤电厂CCUS可通过调整发电小时数扩大与光伏储能技术的竞争优势;在绝大多数弃风省份,如河北、山西、内蒙、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、贵州、陕西、宁夏、甘肃和新疆,其燃煤电厂CCUS在现有条件下较风电储能具有绝对的CLCOE优势。As a stable low-carbon power source with adjustable control,the cost competitiveness of carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS)and renewable energy storage technologies in coal-fired power plants are worth further investigation.The learning curve model was adopted to explore competitiveness changes of the levelized cost of electricity(CLCOE)from 2020 to 2030.Furthermore,the CLCOE advantages in provinces that have solar and wind curtailment were also identified.The main results are as follows.At present,the coal-fired power plants with CCUS has a competitive advantage over renewable energy storage systems.If the coal-fired power plants with CCUS are difficult to develop rapidly,they will lose their CLCOE advantage compared with renewable energy storage technologies by 2028.By 2030,the carbon price being able to make coal-fired power plants with CCUS achieve grid parity will be 136~189 yuan/t,but as far as the current carbon price development trend is concerned,there are difficulties for coal-fired power plants with CCUS to achieve grid parity by relying on carbon price.Coal-fired power plants with CCUS could further expand their competitive advantage compared to solar photovoltaic energy storage technology by adjusting the operation hours in the provinces with solar curtailment;in the provinces withwind curtailment such as Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Ningxia,Gansu and Xinjiang, coal-fired power plants with CCUS have absolute CLCOE advantages compared with windenergy storage system under the existing conditions.

关 键 词：碳捕集、利用与封存 可再生能源储能技术 平准化度电成本 学习曲线 弃风 弃光 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理]