基于距离协调度和GM模型的四川3E系统耦合协调度评价研究  

Research on Coordination Evaluation of Sichuan 3E System Based on Distance Coordination and GM Model

作　　者：严雨男 刘玉邦[2] YAN Yu-nan;LIU Yu-bang(College of Ecology and Environment,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Social Science Division,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学生态环境学院,四川成都610059 [2]成都理工大学社会科学处,四川成都610059

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2020年第24期241-250,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家统计局统计信息技术与数据挖掘重点开放实验室开放课题“水资源-环境投入产出模型统计方法及应用研究”(SDL201708);四川矿产资源研究中心项目“四川典型矿区环境承载力评价指标及方法研究”(SCKCZY2017-YB03);成都理工大学生态文明研究中心项目“成都公园城市多元价值转化实现的绿色治理机制研究”(ST2019-YB018)、“生态文明建设区域协同发展机制研究”的研究成果。

摘　　要：开展四川3E系统耦合协调度评价,对于促进四川生态文明建设具有重要意义.运用距离协调度模型和GM灰色预测模型开展四川3E系统协调度实证评价.评价结果显示,四川3E系统协调度总体上逐年提高,其中环境子系统与经济子系统协调性较好,能源子系统由于消费结构转型影响而出现较大波动,也造成能源与经济、能源与环境的协调性受到影响,能源系统面临着转型压力.从时间维度上看,四川3E系统协调度呈线性增长;从空间维度分析,成都、绵阳、达州三市3E系统协调度变化趋势与四川省基本一致,但变化路径各不相同.未来四川省应进一步调整能源供给和消费结构,促进经济产业转型升级;巩固生态环保基础,提升绿色发展能力;注重科技创新,实现协调发展.Analysis of the coupling coordination degree of Sichuan 3 E system is of great significance for promoting the construction of Sichuan ecological civilization.The distance coordination degree model and GM prediction model can be used to carry out empirical evaluation of Sichuan 3 E system coordination degree.The empirical analysis shows that the coordination degree of Sichuan 3 E system has increased year by year,and the coordination between environment and economy is better.The energy subsystem is subject to large fluctuations due to consumption and structural transformation,resulting in energy and economy,energy and environment.Coordination is affected and the energy system is also facing transformational pressures.From the time dimension,the coordination of the 3 E system in Sichuan Province has shown a linear increase.From the spatial dimension analysis,the coordination of 3 E systems in Chengdu,Mianyang City and Dazhou City is basically the same as that in Sichuan Province,but the development path is slightly different,showing volatility changes.In the future,Sichuan Province should further adjust its energy structure,promote industrial upgrading,consolidate its ecological and environmental protection foundation,and enhance its green development capabilities;focus on technological innovation and achieve coordinated development.

关 键 词：距离协调度 GM模型 3E系统 耦合协调度 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济] F426.2F224